this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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The AMA was just an obligation. It was never going to change his or anyone elses mind.
He knows the reality. This change won't kill reddit. It will make it more controllable though, at the sake of some of their more techy users. The truth is that its big enough that they don't need those users anymore though. The people who do leave will be replaced by the natural growth of the site of people who simply download the official app from the various stores over the next few months.
The result will be a more TikTok/Tumblr/Twitter like experience. Less niche, more mainstream serving.
I think it will convince a lot of people who are not fully engaged with the issue, at least enough to decide not to leave any time soon. If you look at his actual AMA post, there is a lot to placate people on certain aspects, e.g. accessibility. Most redditors didn't even know third party apps existed until a week ago, so they won't care too much about losing those.
But agree with you that they no longer care about the "hardcore" users. Reddit is definitely in an enshittification spiral, but it'll probably take years to play out.
Except… they’re pissing off the moderators and removing their tools. Also the top submitters.
When the moderators and top submitters leave, what’s the content that will keep the bulk of the users doom scrolling? There will be a higher proportion of bot-submitted content, and a larger proportion of undesirable comments. Combined with the inline ads and dark patterns, only ignorance and inertia will hold the remaining audience.
It definitely will retain some level of an ad-watching userbase, but will it retain enough for an IPO and long-term survival? Spez & co. seem to be looking at Twitter and hoping they can do at least as well.