I distro hop a lot. After using Majaro (gnome) for a long time I switched to Pop_OS for a long time. I switched back to Manjaro (Gnome) again, but after a week of use I've just downloaded Ubuntu.
I'm getting basic display issues that I've never got in another distro (including tails!) and it's generally annoying me. I'd rather use a distro that doesn't require troubleshooting on Day 1
Here's how it's going to go down: people will return to whatever the best centralised services are.
People don't use social media to be awkwardly spread over different redundant servers that everyone else is on. People will return to Reddit, or a simple centralised alternative. People will flock to Bluesky.
I'm a long, long internet user and FOSS user, and I find Mastodon to be an incredible pain in the arse. It's unintuative and confusing. Without an all powerful agoriithm, "good" posts are smothered by uninteresting thought bubbles from everyone on the server
edit: and what's with the dark-themes on lemmy and mastodon? It's uninviting. "Power users" often switch on dark themes on their operating systems and websites, but bright and happy themes are needed to welcome "the masses"