I think they might cave. Think of it like a negotiation.
John: Hey, we make zero from third party reddit apps, we should charge them
Fred: Well, they produce a lot of content, which is what keeps people on the site
John: Hmm, we should charge them anyway. Keep the shareholders happy. $1,000 per 50 million requests.
Fred: But won't there be a big uproar?
John: Well, that will happen regardless of what we charge. If we think we can get away with charging $1000 per 50 million requests, let's announce $12,000 per 50 million. Then we can walk back to $1,000 and everyone will think we're being reasonable. If we started at $1,000 we'd probably have to walk it back to $100, and that's a waste of time.
Fred: You're brilliant, lock it in!
One of, if not the most active lemmy instance is a Marxist, pro-Russian war, pro-CCP, pro-North Korea community. When I signed up on lemmy.ml a while back, it was almost all you saw.
The problem with reddit alternatives is that, until now, the only people leaving reddit were the ones kicked off. They needed new homes and they found them in unmoderated communities they could host themselves, like lemmy.
Some of us have been waiting for some time for more "average" redditors to make the move, so this exodus is like Christmas coming early.