Nate Silver IS a right winger, though, so I don't believe anything on his site, and I especially don't believe him on this topic. Even if he wasn't outright a right winger, polls do not matter and are frequently incorrect for various reasons.
Plus, he's no longer affiliated with 538.
Again, even if he isn't an outright right winger, that's fine. I'm willing to back off on that. But polls do not matter, and in fact the only thing they seem to do is reduce turnout. I really don't care about Nate's thoughts, and never have since 2016. I think a lot of people stopped trusting polls and definitely stopped trusting him back then.