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20+ out of 34 Senate for Democrats and narrow lead in the house.
That'd normally be exceptionally good news for the Democrats nominee. So I'm with the big theory that something funky is going on with the polls.
We are about to see the most split ticket voters of all time (Vote Democrat for Senate and House.... But vote for Trump in the Presidency), or people have been lying to pollsters somehow.... On a mass scale.
And I don't believe that split ticket voters exist in this election.
I'm not crazy enough to parse 435 House seats, but I did do the Senate races:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/
"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."
AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R
This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.
FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.
Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.
MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R
MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R
MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.
Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.
NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R
OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R
Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.
PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R
TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.
Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.
WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R
WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.
CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.
DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.
HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.
Bob McDermott - R
IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.
MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.
ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.
MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.
MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.
MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.
ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.
NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I
Osborn is making this a nail biter, but I don't see a steady red state going I.
NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.
NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.
NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.
NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.
RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.
TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.
UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.
VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.
VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.
WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia
WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.
So...
Ind. -> D +1 (Sinema, no real change)
D -> R +1 (Montana)
Ind. -> R +1 (Manchin)
Tossup - OH
Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).
As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.
So if Montana flips. 50 R, 46 D + 4 I = 50. VP is the tie breaker.
WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 51 R, 46 D + 3 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.
AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 51 R, 47 D + 2 I = 49. Doesn't change the math as Sinema caucused with the Democrats.
OH being the tossup, could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. OTOH - Could be 51 R vs. 47 D + 2 I = 49. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.
NE is a wildcard if it flips from R to I. 51 R vs. 46 D + 3 I = 49.
However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.
If 1 out of 4 - Tester, Powell, Allred or Osborne - win, Senate is 50-50
It would warm my heart to see Cruz sent home.
Home to Canada right 🇨🇦
Nah, back down the Mariana Trench, with all the other blob fish.
We don't want him back, you can keep him.
If that's the case, the next VP will be making a lot of tie breaker votes.
Osborn will be a weird case. He's pledged as an independant to "not caucus with either side", but that's not the way the Senate works. He will have to organize with one side or another, to get committee assignments. Everyone assumes he will organize with Democrats because Democrats did not run a candidate against him, but we're not really gonna know if/until we get there.
If Democrats pick up a other seat to get to 51/49 and win the Presidency, it won't matter so much. Osborn can maintain his independence and still probably get thrown a few good assignments by Schumer. But if his decision (or lack of one) will make a difference, we should expect both sides to actively negotiate with him for his vote to organize the chamber.
I'd be relieved for a 50/50 even though I'm guessing Fedderman is going to pull a Manchin and block progress.
Manchin and Sinema are effectively R’s
Both are retired
*retiring
Since both of them can't win their seats back at this point...
Me: Can't wait for the Democrats to win the house so some semblance of progress can be made.
Republicans taking the Senate: Bonjour.
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https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50855-democrats-lead-narrowly-in-the-house-while-republicans-have-an-edge-in-the-senate-mrp-estimates