Great W. Great timing. Rack 'em up going into November.
this post was submitted on 01 May 2024
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Bad timing, IF it depresses pro-choice turnout enough to give Republicans full control of the AZ state legislature (and potentially the federal government) so that they can re-implement this ban or something close to it. Republicans only need 4 state senators and 9 state reps for a veto-proof majority, which they had as recently as 2012. The existence of the ban was expected to juice turnout on the left -- hopefully people do not have short memories.
The existence of the ban was expected to juice turnout on the left – hopefully people do not have short memories.
Good points and fair. I think its an unanswered question as to the impact that RvW will have on turnout. Very very real possibility of a repeat of 1980, except Blue not Red. I'm not sure polling will model this effectively (in fact I'm highly confident it isn't / won't model this component accurately).
Anecdotally, I've never seen the conservative women I know so activated to and pretty instantaneously converted to voting D. Prior they always had excuses or reasons for justifying the reason the voted R. 100% conversion rate for the admittedly very small sample size. Its not even really about abortion, its about civil rights, personal liberty. They've basically become single issue voters and Roe V Wade is the issue.
I also don't think the fight in Arizona is over, and nationally this is going to stay in the news. Depends like you said on how short peoples memories are. This is a very losing issue for R's.