Things just got reeeeeeaaaallllly interesting. Who will the candidate be? Harris? And who will their running mate be? So close to the election... when will this rollercoaster end?
this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2024
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Harris is the only candidate that has access to the existing campaign funds. As AOC pointed out, there are only eight weeks until early voting ballots are sent out. That’s not enough time for someone else to fundraise and run a successful campaign unless the candidate is independently wealthy.
How do other countries have such short election cycles?
Reliable news publications and actively informed voters would be my guess.
In a lot of countries, heads of state are derived from parliament, so people vote for parties and platforms rather than people. The fixation on individuals is a bit of a weird quirk of the US system.
In France they also elect their president directly, but it is not exactly a short election cycle, with two rounds of elections: If no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round, the two candidates leading the race advance to a second stage and people have to vote all over again. And then the new president generally dissolves the parliament, unleashing two new elections with a similar procedure on the more local level.
I am so happy to be voting in proportional representation systems.
It's going to be Harris.
But I hope it's someone else.
I don't have anything against Kamala and I think she'd be better than Biden. But democrats really need someone they can get excited about. Not having that is why they lost 2016, and why 2020 was as close as it was.
Fortunately Biden is the one candidate that can possibly make people excited about Kamala. Now it's up to her to not completely fuck it up... which unfortunately is not a given seeing how badly the debates went
Don't know yet. Still trying to read what was said. I hope they leave it open to the delegates to decide at the convention.
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Probably Nov 5th
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I'm so very glad to see him stop embarrassing himself. It was just so cringe and, far more importantly, he was likely to completely destroy the Democratic Party - possibly forever, given the stakes in this year's election.
This precisely. He was hurting the Democrats. The time to reflect about Biden is after beating Trump in November. The more time Democrats spend praising Biden now, the more they are going to hurt their chances of victory.
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we'll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that'll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn't time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it's 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that's it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can't be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn't there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine's statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn't worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden's home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it's true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don't pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it's over 100%, and even with it's iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it's also the single most crucial state in this election?
That's fairly grim reading but I appreciate the depth of it for a foreigner so thank you.
Link to Haaretz??
BBC, MSNBC and AP are also reporting
Legit all of them are reporting
Yes, those I saw first, hence my confusion
This is breaking news. I would have preferred a different site.
Personally if it were my magic wand, we would nominate the 🥾 (Buttigieg)
He would STOMP that orange.
He may very well. I hope that he challenges Harris and that they have a couple debates or make their arguments on a livestream. That would be good for America to hear their platforms and share their opinions about who they think the stronger candidate is.
Hillary 2024!!!! Who's with me?!?!?
tumbleweed
I don't even think Hillary will be with you there, bud.
She's self-centered enough to believe that it's a sign. But no, I think even the DNC understands that it'd be a bad idea.
On a related note, wouldn't it be the ultimate political punchline if trump ended up losing to her?
Oh my gawd, I'd so love to see that happen, if I'm being honest. I just don't think she could win, or would actually run, but who knows.
Seeing all the memes of cons trying cope would be like manna from heaven.
I think you underestimate her hubris.
Actually... No, that's not fair to Banana...
Do not read aloud from a book that summons demons, even as a joke.
Well, I half-expected to be stabbed in the eye across the internet, but instead I got (at the time of making this comment) just one downvote instead, so it didn't turn out too bad.
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