politics

Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey.

USA has done phenomenally well on the economy lately, that used to count for something, but apparently not so much anymore.
A lot of Americans are planning to vote for the ills of USA to get worse for some reason. They complain average people are not doing well, and then they plan to vote for the guy who is all in for the 1% over everything else? The guy who will gladly dismantle every shred of workers rights, from the party who is absolutely fine with full time work that doesn't even earn a living wage! Who will do absolutely nothing to make things better for working people, but everything he can to cut taxes for the rich.

Is it time to sell if you have American stock?
It seems to me to be pretty risky now. Could this end in a civil war over there?

Ah well USA will get the government they elect, maybe a 2nd term with Trump will make some people wake up. But I doubt it, just look at WW2 Germany, the Nazi regime had to be toppled from outside, but there is nobody to do that with USA.

So if Trump wins, I will not be surprised if we get decades of fascist dictatorship in USA.
If things are not looking better when we reach August, I will sell my American stock, and I think everybody who doesn't is naive in thinking a new term with Trump will end well.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sinclair-lewis-on-fascism/

when fascism comes to America it will be "wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."

I actually agree that Biden's performance was a big problem. Also, the polls are feckin useless, but seeing the relative change that happened because of some event is actually like the one thing they can do pretty well. If you remember the middle school science chart of accuracy vs. precision, they have dogshit accuracy which was off by an average of 16 percentage points when I investigated it for some recent elections, but against all odds they actually are precise.

So, that said: Here's an overview of recent polling.

• Trump's polls really did drop by quite a few points after he was convicted. The same outlets freaking the fuck out over Biden's YouGov polling dropping from 42/42 to now 40/42, didn't say a goddamned word about Trump's "debacle" of being convicted of etc etc when his polls dropped by more than that; in fact they wrote the exact opposite story.
• The massive tanking of support which was predicted did not materialize. IDK what's up with this NYT poll, but what the fuck, just look at the other ones. He dropped a couple percentage points. It's not real good but it's actually a lot less than I expected given how bad the debate was.
• All the other Democratic possibilities are worse. The issue actually isn't Biden. The issue is that the news misrepresents reality so aggressively and mendaciously that people can't figure out whether it's a better idea to take home a cat that's got some health problems, or a rabid dog. That's the root of the whole "Michelle Obama" story -- I think they were looking desperately for some story to write that wasn't "but Biden is still better than every other alternative except Kamala Harris who he's 2 points behind, and we can't write about her being good because she's a realistic replacement and writing good things about her might actually create good things for the Democrats and I'll get in trouble with my boss."

I am beginning to share Trump's hatred for the media

I cannot see how Biden wins without some black swan.

Is that swan named "Kamala", by any chance?

A useless poll? Following the other useless polls?

Relevant.

Cool. Another poll. Does anyone take this shit seriously?

I feel like the only way to get out of this mess is if we have like a George Clooney / Oprah Winfrey ticket.