Debian is best choice in my opinion. Has good stability.
nixos
All about NixOS - https://nixos.org/
I was in similar shoes (my server is running Debian, as it has been for the past two decades), and am going to rebuild it on something else. I chose NixOS, which I recently switched to on my desktop, because it lets me configure the entire system declaratively, even the containers. The major advantage of a declarative configuration is that it will never be out of date.
My main reason for switching is that I've been running the server for a good few years, initially maintained via ansible, but that quickly turned into a hellish bash-in-yaml soup that never quite worked right. So I just made changes directly. And then I forgot why I made a change, or had the same thing copy & pasted all over the place. Today, it's a colossal mess. With NixOS, I can't make such a mess, because the entire system is declared in one single place, my configuration.
Like you, I also planned to use containers for most everything, but... I eventually decided not to. There's basically two things that I will run in a container: Wallabag (because it's not so well integrated into NixOS at the moment), and my Mastodon instance (which runs glitch-soc, which is considerably easier to deploy via the official containers). The rest will run natively. I'll be hardening them via systemd's built-in stuff, which will give me comparable isolation without the overhead of containers. Running things natively helps a lot with declarative configuration too, a nice bonus.
For reference, you can find my (work in progress) server configuration here. It might feel a bit overwhelming at first, because it's written in a literate programming style using org mode & org roam. I found this structure to work great for me, because my configuration is thoroughly documented, both the whys and hows and whats.