Maybe, but I think that the branding of the "fediverse" + difficulty of use will make it unlikely to surpass reddit or any other alternatives. It will almost certainly still be around for years to come, but I doubt it'll be much more than niche, despite me hoping for the contrary.
this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2023
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I think its community has grown permanently. It just depends how much of who's here is part of that growth. When the dust settles, I bet people will go back to reddit or somewhere else. But when that time comes, who will be part of the remnants? 50% of us? More? Less? I have no idea.
I think an important step in pumping that percentage up is to stop asking about this. Every day seemingly dozens of people ask this same question about Lemmy's future. This might be pessimistic, but at this point I'm beginning to think many people are either expecting or hoping for Lemmy to fail.
It's been going for 4 years now. I think the worst case scenario is it falls back to the numbers it had before this reddit incident.
Lemmy will definetly last! I hope so at least. it might never go mainstream, but that a good thing.
It all depends on if Reddit continues to make decisions with disastrous optics. If this is the one and only user bump Lemmy will get off the back of Reddit, I can see it dying down in the future, but if there's more I think it'll take flight and eventually start snowballing on its own merits. I'm not sure if it'll ever be mainstream, but it'll persist - as it was before all this.
Definitely will stay around, yet, realistically speaking, I don't have much expectations about this endeavor even scratching reddit's monopoly in the next 1 ~ 3 years (I hope I'm mistaken), who knows what will happen in 10 or 20
Define "a few weeks"
The blackout started 12-06 which is 2 + weeks ago.
Lemmy and Kbin are still here and I see no sign of it slowing down. I see much more posts with more engagement which is a good thing.
While I plan on using this platform for the forseeable future - I don't have too high hopes.
I think it will probably go the way Mastodon is going. A few weeks of being "hot", then dropping off until it's pretty much business as usual, as it was before being the hot new thing. Don't get me wrong, I want Lemmy to succeed and replace reddit, but I wouldn't bet money on it.
Reddit is dead to me now. Terrible media players. Bulky unoptomized Javascript in browser. Slow load times. Just trash content now.
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I would like to think this is my new home, but I still have a lot of learning to do about the fediverse. I won't be going back to Reddit and using their garbage app and site, but I also still need to learn how to maneuver this new land before it can be a true alternative for me
Im new here on Lemmy. So far it seems a little confusing coming from Reddit. But I really hope it lasts. From what I can tell there is a good community here.
Voat, a previous Reddit competitor, managed to survive for years, even though it attracted a much more niche audience than Lemmy.
Voat started to attract a very....different crowd let's say. It wasn't pleasant to browse at least for me.
If we stay engaged and committed to lemmy, then it will survive. There's already a lot of growing activity here, let's hope it's the flywheel the platform needs.
It won't die in "a few weeks", simply because the likelihood of everybody abandoning ship in such a short timeframe is pretty much zero.
It will almost certainly become irrelevant after some years (we just don't know how many) because almost nothing remains relevant on the Net for more than a decade or two, though even "irrelevant" things still attract a few people so they rarelly "die".
Edit: Also and as a side note, I've actually been questioning just how many people needs to be around here for it to be a good place to be in. I don't think the "millions" of people of Reddit actually added to it and suspect that a few tens of thousand of users are enough for the place to feel interesting to be in and participate in, except perhaps in very obscure and niche subjects were you do need millions of people around for there to be a handful that are interested in such subjects.
As long as Instances don't defederate other instances over petty issues , this should go strong.
I don't think Lemmy would die even if Spez gets fired and they write a public apology for the users inconvenience and step back with the API changes....
I for sure am here to stay!
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I intend to be here for the long run, and I don’t think I’m alone in that mentality.
I really hope it will. The end of June (and of the free API era) is approaching, so I guess we will discover it soon enough
It won't die if we stick around and grow these communities that we've just joined
Too early to say. We'd only really know for sure after the recent growth wave finishes up.