I was feeling pessimistic about this report. If jobs stay strong, and inflation keeps easing we might be seeing that soft landing I was doubtful of.
this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023
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I think that's inflation cut in half from last year's peak now, so we're definitely getting there. It really does seem like the soft landing is a likely outcome at this point, we mostly keep getting closer to it.
Yep. We went from worst inflation since the 80s to inflation of moderate concern all without jobs numbers being impacted by rates. Wish we would raised rates a bit sooner, but it seems worst case crisis has been avoided for now.
Until the commercial real estate market crashes in ~5-10 months. Remember that all the things coming down now lag rates by ~6-12 months. So we are seeing the effect of rates near the end of '22 when they were in the 3% range.