Europe

The current hate-campaign is against people on welfare, actually. The government is implementing new rules that allow them to take away those people's incomes if they refuse a job offer.

The official explanation is the need to save money for the budget, but is actually so little money that even the recent purchase of a few luxury helicopters cost more than the income they seek to get from the cuts. In typical bourgeois fashion, austerity as the whip hitting the wage slave on the back - threatening people who disobey, act up, maybe even... strike? with a drastic reduction in quality of life.

The current protest alliance of agrarian capitalists and petty farmers is also caused by similar things, with eliminating subsidies on fuel.

The military budget has been massively inflated since 2022 and is certainly something that is causing the current malaise (which no, Germany is not collapsing due to deindustrialization or NordStream 2 - it's stagnant), but that's not something from prole to bourgeois really complain about or is even talked about. It simply is, for most people. It's more about how the socdem government is a bad manager, and that is why the right has been massively gaining popularity. Especially since culture wars are fired up by the conservatives and fascists.

When there are ads going "[join the army!] stand for your values!" (and many other such small things, such as the Green Party's Feminist Foreign Policy)

[as I've seen today in Frankfurt]

while a homeless man slept on the floor the opposite side of the camera, the same kind of nonsense as in the United States has it easy to bloom - "woke" vs "normal" etc. But maybe that was never the reason for it. Who knows.

I'd say the likelihood of the current government getting re-elected is 0% it's almost certainly going to be an old-school, 80s style neoliberal CDU government with Chancellor Merz, probably with the socdems as junior partner. Any of the other outcomes, like a fash win, BSW win (patsoc), etc. are possible, but would require a lot of dice rolls to actually form a government.

I saw people claim the communist movement was growing, but I haven't really seen evidence of it here in Bavaria. If anything, it's gotten rather quiet during covid and activity has never recovered. Berlin, etc. are probably the driving force behind the statement, who knows.