this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

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[–] SuiXi3D@kbin.social 24 points 11 months ago (7 children)

Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?

[–] MicroWave@lemmy.world 33 points 11 months ago (26 children)

Well, according to the article:

Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.

[–] RememberTheApollo@lemmy.world 25 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Well, fuck.

And of course wages aren’t going to take a leap forward either.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren't gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).

https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/08/lower-income-earners-wages-have-grown-faster-than-others/

It's pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.

Not saying there's no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don't have to spread disinformation like wages aren't growing.

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[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago (6 children)

Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 9 points 11 months ago (14 children)

Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.

If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.

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[–] BraveSirZaphod@kbin.social 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

It should be clearly stated that recession is a technical term with a specific meaning, not a general term for a rough economy. Not all tough economic times are recessions. It is not at all a contradiction for lots of people to be struggling and for a recession to not be happening. This is not economists saying that everything is hunky dory and that people have no reason to complain, only that the specific phenomenon that is a recession is not occurring right now.

Edit: Just to put it explicitly, a recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters in which GDP contracts rather than growing.

[–] eek2121@lemmy.world 13 points 11 months ago (3 children)

I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.

[–] spyd3r@sh.itjust.works 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

There is definitely something going on lately. I'm always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.

In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I'm more than qualified for these positions I'm applying to, and I've never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.

[–] eek2121@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago
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[–] agitatedpotato@lemmy.world 11 points 11 months ago (4 children)

Here's my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn't true, wouldn't be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn't get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?

What other 'science' has that nifty feature in it?

[–] ryathal@sh.itjust.works 4 points 11 months ago

You can make money on the economy going up or down, so there's generally economists predicting both. There's also a lot of economists that love to be the one to predict a recession, so they pretty much always predict one.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.

Truth is economists can't predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can't click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.

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[–] Wilzax@lemmy.world 10 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!

[–] Bakkoda@sh.itjust.works 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

They found the sweet spot between oops we broke it again and these poor people seem to be actually accumulating savings

[–] piecat@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Nah we've just become too dependent

[–] ryathal@sh.itjust.works 6 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Wow we went through nearly 3 years of recession start tomorrow and now it's not even going to happen. Even weather reporters are better.

[–] BraveSirZaphod@kbin.social 4 points 11 months ago (5 children)

Plenty of economists have been saying that avoiding a significant recession has been entirely possible. A recession is generally defined by at least two successive quarters of GDP decline, and while this did technically happen in 2022, the second quarter was only -0.6%, and the following quarter was back up to +2.7%.

It really needs to be stressed that not all bad economic circumstances are recessions. That's a very specific thing.

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[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 4 points 11 months ago

Weather doesnt read the weather report and change itself in response.

People read economics reports and spend differently in response.

Start giving the northern wind a newspaper, and you will see the weather report falter.

[–] militaryintelligence@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping

[–] Restaldt@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

Just in time for a tumultuous election

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