this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
126 points (96.3% liked)

News

23295 readers
5390 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil


Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.


2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.


Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.


3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.


Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.


4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.


Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.


5. Only recent news is allowed.


Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.


6. All posts must be news articles.


No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.


7. No duplicate posts.


If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.


8. Misinformation is prohibited.


Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.


9. No link shorteners.


The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.


10. Don't copy entire article in your post body


For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] SuiXi3D@kbin.social 24 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?

[–] MicroWave@lemmy.world 33 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Well, according to the article:

Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.

[–] RememberTheApollo@lemmy.world 25 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Well, fuck.

And of course wages aren’t going to take a leap forward either.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren't gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).

https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/08/lower-income-earners-wages-have-grown-faster-than-others/

It's pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.

Not saying there's no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don't have to spread disinformation like wages aren't growing.

[–] RememberTheApollo@lemmy.world 0 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Disinformation?

I’ll offer this in return:

As of the second quarter of 2023, prices are up 15.8% since the beginning of 2021, while wages have climbed 12.8%, based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The trend is a win for workers – a feature of a job market that’s been surprisingly resilient as inflation slows and interest rates rise.

Nonetheless, a gap between household buying power and inflation remains.

At its current pace, workers’ wages aren’t set to recover their loss of total purchasing power until at some point in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bankrate’s new Inflation To Wage Index.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/sep/13/wages-are-finally-rising-faster-than-inflation-wil/

So let’s say wages are increasing faster than inflation. A couple articles I looked at said they just started to last quarter, so great, you might be right, but you’ve only been right for a very short while and the buying power that should go along with increasing wages won’t be felt until next year sometime.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Not disinformation, it's accurate. Your article is accurate too, though lacks context and important details. Let me explain.

Wages outpaced inflation at the beginning of the pandemic, stopped being enough to compensate about May 2021, and started to again in January 2023. Though technically even earlier, because these are all year over year rates so it's talking about the entire year summed up ending in January 2023, so in reality that threshold was crossed sometime in the year ending in January 2023. As the graph above showed.

If you're talking about real wages/hr compensated for inflation fully recovering, it depends on your comparison point in time. I think December 2019, just before the pandemic started, makes the most sense as a comparison point. If that's your starting point, real wages/hr are already higher.

Real wages in 1982-1984 dollars, December 2019: $10.96/hr https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_01142020.pdf

The same for October 2023: $11.05/hr https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

Your article doesn't state what it uses as the start point date. I'm guessing to get at that conclusion they must have picked a date already somewhat into the pandemic. I think this is misleading because there was a time at the start of pandemic inflation plummeted as people stopped spending money on many things, while wages continued to increase. If you consider the pandemic as a whole, wages have compensated for inflation. Purchasing power right now is greater than in December 2019. If you cherry pick somewhere in the middle of the pandemic, grabbing the point in time that inflation really started to tick up with the supply chain crisis but excluding the earlier wage increases that occurred during the pandemic, like let's say April 2021 (well over a year into the pandemic), than we would still be below that time point.

April 2021: $11.31/hr https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_05122021.pdf

I'm guessing that's the time point your article must have picked, because at the current rate of wage increases over inflation we'll equal that again ~February. But again, misleading year over year rates, so if we hit that on the official number reported in February it means in reality we crossed that point sometime during the previous year ending in February.

And another disclaimer, these wage gains are not even across the whole economy. As your article pointed out, hourly workers and low wage workers saw more of the increases. Some sectors like healthcare and social services saw less of them. So none of this is to imply anything about any particular individual, these are all very broad averages. And of course feel free to disagree with me on what comparison time points make the most sense to you. But I think the most important things in terms of inflation are that month to month inflation is currently pretty flat and back to normal (0.1% price increase in November 2023 from October 2023), and wage increases are continuing to outpace it, so purchasing power will continue to improve over time if these trends continue.

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 3 points 11 months ago

Just fyi, when the poster accused you of disinformation, it was a warning that they were about to push some disinformation.

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Still boned and if you're not delighted it means you want Trump to win.

[–] Psychodelic@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Can you explain how/why you think either Biden or Trump is related to the cost of rent? Just trying to understand your comment

[–] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world -1 points 11 months ago

Any dissatisfaction with anything in the US means you want Trump to win.

[–] ryathal@sh.itjust.works -2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Rent and housing are under a supply crunch, unless the population stops growing, or construction speed doubles, nothing is going to drop prices.

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 3 points 11 months ago

I mean, legislation could easily drop prices. Our government reigning in unjustified price hikes would absolutely stop the unjustified price hikes.

[–] guacupado@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

The rich people already buying homes now would just buy the new homes. Even brand new homes in my area are selling for almost half a million when just before Covid they'd be like 280k or 320k. People not to stop pretending like housing a supply issue and not a corporations-and-rich-people-buying-everything-up issue. When new construction comes up with these ridiculous prices, the people who already own multiple properties just buy it up because they can already easily afford to. All you need is to be able to get a few properties and after that the money makes itself which is why all of the sudden everyone's interested in real estate the last few years. Builders don't care about it because there are still companies and people able to pay these obnoxious prices. Don't even get me started on how everyone thinks they're a genius for realizing how profitable buying homes to use as Airbnbs is.