this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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Hezbollah surrendering without a ceasefire in Gaza was more worrying. Especially after the stories about their rocket reserves which never delivered
Assad won't really be missed for anything but his compliance in transporting weapons to Lebanon.
But Iran will not be involved in a huge war. Iran has missile barrages aimed at oil in the entire region. Even Trump will never attack them lest he pisses off his Saudi BFF when all the oil goes boom. And the American economy will crash without the oil as well.
I don't think they surrendered to anyone -- they just negotiated a ceasefire between them and Israel. Bad, but they're not off the board like Syria.
Who knows what information Hezbollah had about the impending collapse of Syria that we didn't have? Who knows how that impacted their ceasefire decision?
Hezbollah 100% surrendered. Israel did not want a ground invasion and was losing many troops. It was terrible for them. The only reason Israel did it was because Hezbollah said they would not stop before a ceasefire in Gaza was achieved.
Seeing as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah lost big time. Their leadership got decimated and they barely used those 100.000 rockets everyone was talking about. They also have mass casualties from the beeper attack.
Right after Hezbollah finally struck Tel Aviv they suddenly tapped out without the condition they asked for: a ceasefire in Gaza. So Hezbollah lost.
Now Israel gets to take Syria for free as well.
You don't get to keep your weapons when you surrender. It's just not an accurate summation of the situation. The big difference between surrendering to an opponent vs. agreeing to a ceasefire is that with a ceasefire you can re-start fighting at some point.
It's not about weapons but demands being met and goals achieved. Israel achieved their goal and got Hezbollah of their backs without feeling much in terms of retaliation.