It would take a strong defeat (e.g. loss of occupied territories not only in Ukraine, but also Georgia, Moldova and loss of Belarus). They are unfortunately really petty and it would piss them off to no end if our countries became successful and independent.

Perhaps I am too biased against russians, but some sort of global ostracization would be helpful. Not allowing russian citizens into EU, US, Australia.

And most importantly a prolonged period of economic decline.

Yeah, Navalniy and his crew have zero influence inside the country and they are not really looking to do anything beyond YT videos. They don't really want to fight. They are malicious grifters that at best run an online discussion community for somewhat liberal leaning russians.

Their pride stems from imperialism and "being feared". They are no where near recognizing that they have the capability to build a better world for themselves. Not to mention they just can't stop themselves from digging a deeper hole, that exponentially increases the cost of action.

[–] andrew_bidlaw@sh.itjust.works 1 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

Most russian people haven't left their region at all, except on annual holiday trips. With current prices and the withering weight of rouble, it's unlikely someone who doesn't do higher mid tier wages can travel outside of Russia. I'd probably advocate instead on closing programs allowing to gain citizenship by investments and creating a business. That's how rich russians who have a significant econonical impact get their foreign passports.

I'm not sure how territorial\political losses or economical decline would make russians frustrated rn. With a total grasp on local media, Tzar can easily put a blame on other states and for his followers it works. They do sell the myth of capturing others is the way to go, and that it needs some sacrifices.

I think you've been caught in a trap of thinking russian commoners are somehow different to others. Vatniks aren't an unique occasion, and it seems a lot of countries are vulnerable to have them, especially if authporitarian states put effort to nurture a culture of useful idiots somewhere else like Russia does in bordering states.

Maybe my bias is directly opposite to yours.