66
Swing states: how Democratic vote stayed flat while Republican gains won it for Trump
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
66 points (92.3% liked)
politics
19097 readers
3230 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
But if you look at the swing states that resulted in her loss, MI, WI, PA the votes are comparable to 2020.
(Votes in millions) MI: 2.80 Trump - 2.72 Harris vs 2.65 Trump vs 2.80 Biden WI: 1.70 Trump - 1.67 Harris vs 1.61 Trump vs 1.63 Biden PA: 3.51 trump - 3.44 Harris vs 3.38 Trump vs 3.46 Biden
Yes, Harris got generally fewer votes (Though not in WI). If Trump performed exactly as he did in 2020, Harris would have won. Trump did better. More people said "yes I want Trump" or more people turned out to vote to make sure it was "too big to steal"
If those numbers are "trumps votes stayed flat too" then, Harris receiving a similar number of votes to Biden in 2020 is flat too, right?
Like yeah there was an enthusiasm gap that seems pretty clear from the popular vote. But if you just look at the must win states it wasn't as far as what the nationwide popular vote would sugget. I think the safest conclusion to draw is Repubs were more energized to beat the fictional steal, and for some asinine reason some anti-trump voters went "...eh..Harris isn't good enough for my vote so we'll risk a fascist winning."
Yeah trump did better with young men, but I don't like % point comparisons like they show. If dem voters don't show up, it appears like Trump "wins". There were definitely articles where it was clearly he was picking up iconically reliable blue votes - Black and Latinos specifically. I think it's more just that people are hurting. The economy sucks for them and has for the past 12+ years. Even considering increased wages, it's still costing ridiculous more to exist.
The only shot the Dems had of not having that around their neck is an actually open primary. Biden needed to stick to what he said he was going to be - a bridge to the next generation. But he didn't. And then hung on top long where the only logical step with three months to go was Kamala. Even if a snap primary on all 50 states could happen again in a month, all the headlines would be "DEMS SKIP OVER CLEARLY QUALIFIED BLACK WOMAN -ARE THEY RACIST?"
Politics is messy. Dems needed a dem candidate. They've asininely let Republicans become the agents of change. The people that will shake things up. Fight the establishment. And it doesn't matter they don't actually do that, most voters are low info. The Democratic party needs to get people back on the picket line. Fight more. Go after business more. Swing for the fences and lose. Propose a negative income tax bracket. Yeah it's more conservative bullshit from the Reagan era, but it's a decent fucking alternative to UBI which doesn't have the broad appeal.
2020 Data 2024 Data
But, apparently, they will do that more than Dems. But just a bit.
People also don't like educated well-off white liberals graciously descending to ask for their lowly votes, to bring these poor bastards to some democratic heaven, but that's not certain. A lot of those people are, ahem, still kinda Christian and still kinda conservative, like second generation immigrants from Catholic Latin American countries. In any case this kind of condescending attitude tends to be unpopular. Especially when those promises haven't been fulfilled in the past.