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I guess it was gradual, but when did it become the job of journalists to try and guess what politicians mean when they make statements? Shouldn't the meaning be made clear by the speaker? Right now it seems like its:
The difference is he could be the next president and try to turn whatever he's thinking into national policy, so it's worthwhile to try and dissect what he's saying.
But those experts are also (somehow, still) not really accustomed to Trump's bombastic language. He was like this long before he got into national politics, hyping real estate and business for the market (where it kind of worked). That's a totally different world, where half lies and crazy sales talk are the norm.
The problem is, he has no idea about policy and really no interest in it, except when the decision obviously benefits himself, or benefits those who pretty directly benefit him. So whatever he's saying at this point is just stuff he thinks sounds good. It bears no relation to what he'll do, except where there's obviously something in it for him and his associates. That's why "I'll take vengeance on my opponents" or "I'll increase fossil fuel use and suppress green technologies" are the kinds of statements to take seriously from him, but "I'll sort out your water problems" is not, unless we can find a benefit for him in it. The question to ask is, "Is he saying this because he thinks it benefits him to say it, or because he thinks it benefits him to do it?" (And for him, making people he dislikes suffer counts as a benefit.)
This does benefit him if it gets him votes. He wants voters to like him, and he'd absolutely build this crazy pipe and slap his name on it if he could.
But like you said, he'd drop it like a rock if it's inconvenient.
Unlike other politicians, Trump accepted there's no real consequence for making fantasies up and almost lying, just like he did in business.
And anyone who's on the fence about Trump is not thinking critically like this, they are looking at a few things he's saying and pondering if its a good thing and benefits them.
And again, fact-based news journalism does not have the luxury of assuming "Here's what we think he's saying, and we think he's making that up because it benefits him, so it's probably nonsense."