this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2023
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My phone's predictive text says-- Hang on, let me check what dumbass thing it's going to say this time-- Apparently that I'm going to "pick up the kids for my husband" except I don't have kids and I'm not married. Predictive text is, at it's heart, the same AI working in chatGPT bots right now. Just with access to a lot more data so it doesn't make rookie mistakes like your phone's predictive text, assuming that because a lot of humans write that sentence that it must be universally true-- That everyone picks up their kids for their husbands. That's all AI it is: Predictive text on a massive scale. It predicts the most likely word that goes next, based on the words that have come before, and the structure of sentences it has studied. ChatGPT (and similar bots) are very, very good at predicting what a human would say. But that's just it: A computer program that puts the most likely word after each successive word, so the end result closely resembles human speech.
It cannot make promises because it has no concept of promises. It just knows that when the phrase "Do you promise..." comes up in a block of text, the next block of text is likely going to contain an affirmation of that promise, then a repeat of that promise, and then a statement of trustworthiness. The robot isn't promising anything, it's just simulation of a promise.
If you ask it to keep a secret, ask it to make a very simple promise, it will immediately blab that secret the moment you ask it to tell you the secret, assuming it's the kind of chatbot that "remembers" your inputs.
Please stop asking AI to weigh in on great existential questions until we have some sort of back-end working that's capable of actual cognition instead of just a word simulator for fooling your very social brain into believing that you've encountered cognition.
Basically yeah, predictive text is an extremely simple AI built using Markov chains to predict the next word based on probability. What happens next depends only on now, it doesn't have a memory to speak of. ChatGPT is built using artificial neural networks that can take an input and process it in ways that assign weight/value to different bits of data and store that information and reference it later to learn more and teach itself, drawing more conclusions from previous data and in turn storing that data to make even more conclusions!
I agree we're not at the singularity yet and I'm not sure that's even a real thing. It's all still just fancy programming for now but machine learning and AI right is very exciting and who knows what kind advancements could be right around the corner.
Exactly. Stephen Wolfram has a great article about the method, along with examples: https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2023/02/what-is-chatgpt-doing-and-why-does-it-work/
Here's another link for your guys, an explanation for why so many people are pushing the idea this is genuine AI https://softwarecrisis.dev/letters/llmentalist/