I've been thinking over this the last few days, and I do not see a situation where ev charging will ever be profitable enough for businesses to install them at large. I assume most public charging is DC fast charging so I'm talking about that.
Where do you put a charger so that is receives the most amount of use? Well that's easy, wherever gas stations currently are—but that's where the problems start. How many chargers do you install, and at what charging speed?
The theoretical max amount of money you can make in an hour is the charging speed x price/kW. So for a 100kW charger at 50¢/kW you're hard capped at $50/hr. I found a 240kW DC charger on aliexpress for $44,000. Using the 50¢/kW from above it'd take 36 days to break even, assuming 24/7 usage at the theoretical maximum. With a normal usage of around 6 hours total (i'm just throwing numbers out there) that jumps to 146 days. After 10 years of operating you're looking at around $1.2 million or a 2727% return
However, the time to break even grows and the return shrinks with the amount of chargers installed. And this is without factoring in installation costs and the power companies electricity price, which could easily cut that down to a fourth. I also do not see a charger going 10 years without a single repair.
I'm just wondering if i'm missing something here.
With home charging that worsens the issue. When EVs are more widely used and people opt to install chargers in their homes, the demand for DC chargers will also fall.
I think the difference with gas stations is that you can get that $50 in a few minutes compared to half an hour, so you need comparatively less stations.
And another is will the price of charging stations actually come down? I don't actually believe they're exorbitantly expensive right
Keep in mind that the $50 a gas station is collecting is only about $5 in profit. Most of their profit is the retail sales.
Basic economics indicate the more volume is produced the cheaper each unit costs. I am not aware of any reason this is different for ev charging stations.
Here's a random article I found on the prices for these stations. The third level are the ones that are pricey. This is a fast moving market and level 4 already exists and won't be the last level. Each is faster at higher cost.
Not everyone needs a quick charge. The market will find a middle ground. My bet is people will choose a meal and a slow cheap charge over an expensive quick charge and still need to stop and eat anyway.
Gas is dirty, smelly and messy. Electricity is none of these things and so it can coexist in places gas cannot.