this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2024
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I think much of it comes from "futurologists" spending too much time smelling each others' farts. These AI guys think so very much of themselves.
It's crazy how little experts like these think of humanity, or just underestimate our tollerance and adaptability to weird shit. People used to talk about how "if we ever learned UFOs were a real phenomena, there would be global mayhem!" because people's world views would collapse and they'd riot, or whatever. After getting a few articles the past few years since that first NY Times article, I've basically not heard anyone really caring (who didn't already seem to be into them before, anyway). Hell, we had a legitimate attempt to overthrow our own government, and the large majority of our population just kept on with their lives.
The same AI experts 10 years ago would have thought the AI we have right now would have caused societal collapse.
Idk about societal collapse, but think about the amount of damage the World Wide Web and social media has and continues to do. Look at the mess cars have made of cities around the world over the course of a century. Just because it doesn't happen overnight, doesn't mean serious problems can't occur. I think we have 10 years before the labour market is totally upended, with or without real AGI. Even narrow AI is capable of fucking things up on a scale no one wants to admit.
Agreed, partially. However, the "techbros" in charge, for the most part, aren't the researchers. There are futurologists who are real scientists and researchers. Dismissing them smacks of the anti-science knuckleheads ignoring warnings about the dangers of not wearing masks and getting vaccines during the pandemic. Not everyone interested in the future is a techbro.
"Futurologist" is a self-appointed honorific that people who fancy themselves "deep thinkers" while thinking of nothing more deeply than how deep they are. It's like declaring oneself an "intellectual".