this post was submitted on 10 May 2024
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They sure got the ability to ear Gaza and west bank by themselves but loss of US support would make their geopolitical situation untenable mid to long term. That's my thinking and common understanding in geopolitical circles.
Is Israel government and military deranged enough to think they can go forward on their own?
Seems that way
I suspect that in usual fashion, when that approach blows up and they get shit all over them, it'll be everyone else's fault that it happened that way
US support for Israel continuing the current conflict or US support for Israel in general? If really forced into it, maybe the Democrats can withdraw their blessing for the current conflict, but I don't see how they could end support for Israel. If Putin wins the US election who knows what could happen but short of that Israel is just too important to the US empire and they know it. I mostly believe the official line from Washington that they don't have that much leverage against Israel - in the sense that Bibi&co have enough counter levers to make acting against them more costly than it's worth for the Democrats.
Hence the bullshit antisemitism law, the brutalizing of campus protests, etc. Democrats are even willing to drive down turn out among their base in one of the most important elections in US history over this - I just don't see them doing that if they had a better card to play.
Yes, I am also a bit surprised by Democratic party willing to risk election over this but I am guessing their calculation is that losing support of Israel lobby is 100% loss?
But yeah at this rate Putin is gaining serious ground in the US presidential elections. Not sure how much face US got left to lose, but likely won't be anything left.
Yeah, I've been presuming that's a significant part of it. That and the importance of a dependent and dependable ally to help anchor US security architecture in a vital region. Israel needs US imperial presence in the region. Saudi just benefits from it.