this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2024
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SpaceX, from a financial standpoint, is just an elaborate Ponzi scheme for Musk, who treats all of his companies as his private fiefdom and personal piggy bank. In reality, none of them are genuinely profitable, and depend on government subsidies and capital investments to survive. The goal is to just build a barely viable business and then scam people with bullshit promises. Any real cash flow is immediately converted into cash for his personal use. Though from time to time, he uses that cash prop up another of his ventures. Very likely, all of this will come crashing down at some point, and it will be revealed that his companies are nothing like what they seem.
I feel like Twitter (I will always deadname it) was the beginning of the end for him. Unfortunately, things like this can take years or decades to resolve, but whereas 5 years ago he had the midas touch and could do no wrong now there seems to be nothing but a stream of negative news about him.
Time will tell
The "midas touch" is basically just securities fraud. Something he can't get away with forever.
In what sense? Lying about the actual capabilities of the business? Full autonomous drive next year and Mars at 2022?
All of those statements existed to either drum up investment money or get people to buy non-existent products. So those things are examples of securities fraud too.
They've literally made reusable boosters and have multiple operations to deploy satellites and go to the space station (not to mention starlink ) . While I'm not a Musk fan, those achievements are irrefutable. SpaceX may or may not be making money, but it's a far cry from a ponzi scheme. It's why so many are trying to copy their technological achievements.
It is a Ponzi scheme from a financial sense. In the end, it's just a launch provider. It's not suddenly going to become the next Apple in terms of market value. But it is valued like that, and they were able to raise billions of dollars by lying about its potential business ventures.
I would argue that SpaceX is now to important to NASA, and therefore the US government, to be allowed to fail. It may not be under Elon's control, it may not be called SpaceX, but it will continue to exist.
Then it would be another Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, etc.