this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2024
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Crimea was in the USSR, no? So it's been 30 years since the area which is now Russia had control of Crimea. I have no idea how long ago is too long, but probably a human lifespan maximum is reasonable. Part of the calculus I'm using is literally just "can the country win a war for the area?". Which is why Alaska is not debatable. Like, Russia really wants Crimea, they will most likely win the war eventually, why not let them have it if it means ending the war? If they were to then try to take more land, that's when we put our foot down. Sure it's a bad precedent, but who says we have to follow precedent? It's really just America that cares about Russia not getting stronger, the rest of the world should want all of Russia, China, and America to be roughly equal.
If Alaska is a great starting point for invasion, then we definitely should not let them take Alaska.
If the Black Sea is a great starting point for invasione, then we definitely should not let them take the Black Sea.
It's not though. It's strategic importance is purely defensive. It is useful for influencing places that border the black sea. It's completely irrelevant to an attack on anywhere else
Do you realize that "influencing places that border the Black Sea" means "influencing 3 NATO members and Ukraine" which basically are the 90% of the coast of the Black Sea. Invading one of the only two non NATO members facing the Black Sear does not seems a particular intellingent way to try to influence the others...
By influence, I meant militarily.
Then it is even dumber doing it this way.
Yes, you're right. I thought Ukraine was kinda independent since they had a seat in the UN, but I was wrong. So it's been roughly 30 years, yes.
And that is exactly what Gian and I are refering to. In the 1930s it was "If Germany gets Austria, it would be peace in our time." "If Germany gets Sudetenland, it would be peace in our time." But Hitler was never satisfied.
And here lies the problem. De facto they already had Crimea. There is no way around that they occupied it and no one lifted a finger. Now they want the Donbass Region with all the iron and coal. Luhansk and Donetsk.
So "If Russia gets Crimea, there will be peace in our time." doesn't ring quite so good now. "If Russia gets Donbass, there will be peace in our time" is the exact same mistake that was made 90 years ago. And those mistakes cost many lives.
No. The European Union also cares about Russia getting stronger. Well I for myself don't want an authoritarian governmant to just invade neighbours because they feel like it. The European Union tried to integrate Russia by trading with them, but we see that that didn't quite get the result that was hoped for.
I do get, what you're trying to say that China, Russia and the USA should be roughly equal, but the EU is missing and to be honest, two Superpowers being authoritarian is more frightening than anything else.
I don't really see a distinction between Crimea and Donbass/Donetsk. To me it's the same placeAnd supposedly the people of those regions voted to leave Ukraine, right? So that essentially makes Russia equivalent to France in the American revolution.
It'd be great if no one ever invaded anywhere else, but it won't happen. Best we can do is resolve it as peacefully as possible. I see democracy as the same as simulated war: one side has 20,000 men, one has 15,000, let's just assume the bigger army will win and skip the war altogether. Russia has a bigger army, we should just call the war and be done with it. There's no reason global politics have to adhere to precedent.
Supposedly. One side says it were fair elections the other doubts that. So, who is right? The side that had soldiers at the voting booths, oppresses the people there, deports and kills the people living there, or the one to which the regions belong that wants to live in peace?
Since I made these points over and over again that the votings for independence are not fair and equal, that Russia is violating international law, and they are attacking an independent country, I will stop here since we're going round in circles.
I mean, I believe the side not allied with a country known to rig elections and openly spread propaganda about their victims. Recently the US president claimed to have personally seen videos of Hamas beheading babies, which never existed. Russia spreads propaganda internally too, but historically only about internal affairs, not shit like claiming Venezuelas election was rigged in order to install a puppet.
Obviously using larger army as a metric doesn't make sense in the long term. It only works in spots where you've already committed to a war.
Saying it wasn't a legit election because Russian soldiers were there is stupid. That can just as easily be used as proof that it was legitimate. I'm sure Britain looked like the peaceful side during the US revolution as well, does that make France the bad guys in that war?
Given that other people had seen them and people are now starting to speak about the horrors they witnessed (or have been subjected to), I would doubt it. But still, not the point.
Sure. Already asked: then what do you think is a rigged election ?
A rigged election is when you disregard the outcome of the votes. Such as venezualas in 2018 (attempted). All agreed that the votes said Maduro won, but America claimed it was rigged, and thus their puppet actually won. Or if the things trump supporters claimed were actually true, that's a rigged election.
Nobody has ever disseminated the videos Biden claimed to have seen, or verified any of the IDFs claims. Other people claimed to have seen them, and people have claimed anything they can think of about Hamas. None of it has been verified. Believing anything the IDF says at this point is essentially malicious incompetence, nobody who has done research on the topic would actually believe the BS being spewed. Biden is either an idiot for believing it, or lying. I lean towards idiot in this case.
Ok, that is one way that you can have a rigged election. Don't you really think this is the only way, right ? Or are the North Korea ones not rigged ?
Aside the fact that we have multiple journalists around the world that had seen the video.
Aside the fact that we have phone record of "eroic hamas warriors" telling his mom that "I killed 10 jews" and was played on the news. Aside the fact that we have photos of jews girl on the back of a van brutally beated (if not already dead) that were paraded, photos that were shown on the news.
Aside the fact that we have what the hostages said to have seen (or have suffered) what happened.
But hey, it is ok. After all if Hamas said that they don't kill innocent people, who we are to doubt it ?
One last point.
I get what kind of person you are, it is useless to have a discussion with you. Let's end here and now.
I'm sure that one or two, or hell, maybe 1-200, of the 1000-1500 people Hamas has killed, were not IDF. However, literally every Israeli over the age of 15 is IDF, so that is itself pretty suspect. And maybe 1 or 2 were done so as horrifically as the IDF claims. All groups have horrible people in them in small numbers. But that has never been shown to be true. You're simply taking people's word for it. Basically nothing the IDF has ever said has been independently verified, while most of what Hamas has claimed has been. So yes, I believe the group that doesn't lie, and not the one who does.
I don't know how NK rigs elections. How do we even know for sure they do? I mean I obviously don't believe American media about it. Does Chinese or Russian media say they do? Or Al Jazeera? But assuming they do actually do it, what was your point about rigged elections again?
And even if this is true, what's your point ? That it is right to kill them ?
Yes. Unluckily I am old enough to remember all the supposed good people of Gaza celebrating on the streets the Twin Towers attack. And in these good people there were also woman and children. But ok, this is not on Google, so it does not happened.
True, like you are taking the word of Hamas for it.
They are pretty open about their strategy: "kill their civilians, hide behind out civilians so that when the IDF hit one we can cry to ask the world to made IDF to respect the Geneva convention, because most people are too stupid to even understand that we are sistematically violating what we ask the IDF to respect".
So yes, they don't lie. They only don't say all the truth, omitting just the part that make them look bad.
The description of the North Korea elections comes from a NK official, so I suppose we can entrust it. Of course the person could have lied.
No nation would ever admit to rig the election, don't you think ?
No, I mean does Russia, China, or Al Jazeera say that NK rigs their own elections. Or any country/paper that doesn't stand to gain from lying about NK in the same direction as the US media stands to gain.
Yes, it is good to kill IDF soldiers. They are committing genocide. Hamas isn't hiding behind civilians, they ARE civilians, who have been radicalized by the genocide. Also it's literally impossible to position an army base somewhere in Gaza that is not next to civilian housing.
But to be clear, even if Hamas IS using human shields, it is still a crime against humanity to target that shield. Source on them systemically violating it though? I'm mostly interested to see if your source is blatant propaganda. Presumably "100 Gazans got in the way of our missiles last week, but they were actually all Hamas anyway due to living within a mile of a ~~hospital~~ "Military base" ".
IDF is the bad guys here, not sure how much clearer they have to make it. Even if they didn't have a history of never telling the truth, they wouldn't be trustworthy.
Man, how the North Korea elections are done come from a North Korean Officier, not a West jounalist, and then every country that don't rigs their own election said "well, maybe these elections are rigged, and if they are not rigged they are just a show" (then yes, the NK guy could have lied, but why ? )
If IDF is committing a genocide, it is the worst carried out genocide in the history of humankind. The Gaza population grow from a little less that 1 million people in the 1950's to the actual 5.5 millions.
Then why they always refuse any kind of solution ? A two state solution was offered multiple times. Beside, Israel left Gaza in 2005, on October the 7th Gaza was free from any IDF occupation for 18 years.
But let me educate you a little more, before you will say what I know you will say: historically speaking is the Gaza population that need to be thankfull to be able to stay there, not the Jews. In fact the Jews where there way earlier is a way or another. The name Palestine were given to this area when the Roman Empire annexed the territory in 63 BCE and after the revolts of 66/70 CE. And the name was given as a dispregiative against the Jews.
End of today story lesson.
That is not a justification. Maybe it could be a reason to look for a peacefull solution, if only Hamas would care for their civilians.
True, but it is also a crime to use human shields. So, eventually, we are even. But wait, there is more. The Geneva convention clearly state that if you violate any of its articles then you loose any right to be tratead as dictated by the Geneva convention
This war itself ? The fact that they don't even try to evacuate the civilians ? The interview where the Hamas leader esplicitally said that they are using their civilians as cannon fodder to make the pressuse against Israel from the world to increase ?
Photos of missile systems on the roof of hospitals.
Oh and just so you are aware, pretty much everything Israel has said in the last year has been found to be a lie, so you really can't be taking anything they say as a fact. It's probably more reliable to take it as a reverse fact, actually.
Okay let's get some facts down, because you are sorely lacking them.
Britain stole what is now Israel from Palestine in 1948. Palestine is older. There's a strong argument that all of Israel is still Palestine, seeing as Palestine never agreed to it.
For 30 years prior to 10/7, Israel carried out a siege of Gaza, for all intents and purposes. Gazans could not leave to receive life saving medical care without permission, they could not build water pipes without the IDF bombing them, they could not bring in food from outside because Israel was rationing the number of calories they allowed in, and they could not build hospitals featuring any level of technology because Israel prevented all tech from coming in (not just weapons, all technology more complex than a flip phone).
Genocide is an ongoing concept. The fact that Jews exist today is not evidence that the Holocaust didn't happen. If a group sees 5 million births every year, it is still genocide to kill 2 million of them per year.
It is frankly absurd that you think you know more about this than I do, while getting all of these basic facts wrong. You obviously haven't researched this at all, so why do you think you are some expert on it? I certainly didn't know the 3 facts I laid out above before doing any research, nobody does. So why are you convinced you just happen to possess correct knowledge of a highly complex situation innately? Nobody has ever been right about anything worth thinking about before researching anything on the subject, I promise it's not just you.
Yes, Palestine is older. What you fail to notice is that Palestine is younger than the first Jews in the region. As I alread said, Palestine was the name given to the region by the Roman Empire after they conquered the area and they defeated the Jews, and was a derogatory name.
Why would it matter if Jews lived there before Palestinians? They hadn't for hundreds of years prior to 1948. Hell, by that logic every person on earth has a claim to Africa, because all of our ancestors used to live there.
Man, study some of your country history, you will do yourself a favor.
What you are referring to is completely wrong. France intervened as US ally after the what will become US declared war against England. To compare to the actual situation, it would be that US are France, Ukraine is the rebel colonies and Russia is England.
Which is the exact mentality that provoked WWII.
Sometimes I think that what US needs is to have a real war fought on their home land, only this way you will understand how wrong is what you are saying. Not that I hope so, but it would be a learning lesson.
It don't work this way, sorry. And your assumption is completely wrong. Or are you trying to say that if North Korea declare war against US then US will lose ?
North Korea doesn't have a larger army than USA.
The regions at war have declared independence from Ukraine. It's the same situation as America was in, except that France wasn't trying to make the colonies become french. But they certainly expected a high level of control over them.
Comparing it to WW2 is insane, it's not remotely the same situation.
Wikipedia begs to differ. According to the list from the "International Institute for Strategic Studies" North Korea has a total (active, reserve and paramilitary) of a little less than 7.8 million people. US a little more than 2 million.
But ok, let's consider only the active military, so let's switch North Korea with China.
China have bigger army, so they can take the US, since in the case of a war, it is supposed that China will win.
Aside it seems a lot like the years before WWII...