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I doubt it, the moron killed his own demos with his own policy in 2020. Democrats have over performed every special election since then. Biden now has incumbency as well. It’ll be tighter than it should be, but I bet trump does does worse than he did in 2020
I mean, maybe. But the impact on R votes was fairly small when considering the electoral college, and while Biden has the incumbency he also has a genocide being performed by an "ally" we don't seem willing to stop selling arms to, and he can't seem to find any but the mildest language to begrudgingly indicate that maybe this might not be 100% exactly precisely something he can really support on the part of Israel - not that he's prepared to take any action mind you, but just if anyone is listening he wants people to know this doesn't fill him with joy.
I'm gonna vote for Biden. But he's not doing himself any favors, and the fact that I'd die rather than vote for Trump, and Republicans on the whole are dead to me now, are the reasons he's getting my vote. Not enthusiasm for Biden or because he's the incumbent. Police reform? Forgotten. MJ rescheduling? Token platitudes. Student Loans? Glad he did something, but happier if he did more. Probably not going to offset the "young people angry about Gaza" contingent. Etc.
In 2022 Israel wasn't razing Gaza one hospital at a time while we stood by without so much as wringing our hands. That's gonna change the votes of some folks. The only question is how many.