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Russia will not be seeking to get a firm NATO response in the form of troops mobilised; they will be seeking to carefully undermine confidence in article 5 with small offenses that "should" trigger it but (they hope) don't, causing fractures in the alliance that will allow them to be more brazen. They don't want to deal with blocs of countries, they have more leverage in 1:1 negotiations and will seek ways to force more of these on NATO members.
More snake than bear.
They've always been like this. Their spy game has always been better than ours, where we excelled at cryptography
Which they've done blatantly since Georgia. Well put friend. I've been trying to articulate it this succinctly. Always think of raptors testing the cage.
Credit for this explanation to Anders Puck Nielsen. He puts things into words in a way that clicks with me
Not familiar
Yes, or attempts at lightning strikes that force the response to not be defence but invasion of a recently invaded country.
The attack on Ukraine was an attempt at this, and would have fractured NATO had it worked because it would work just as well against Estonia