Showerthoughts

29793 readers

926 users here now

A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. A showerthought should offer a unique perspective on an ordinary part of life.

Rules

All posts must be showerthoughts
The entire showerthought must be in the title
Avoid politics
- 3.1) NEW RULE as of 5 Nov 2024, trying it out
- 3.2) Political posts often end up being circle jerks (not offering unique perspective) or enflaming (too much work for mods).
- 3.3) Try c/politicaldiscussion, volunteer as a mod here, or start your own community.
Posts must be original/unique
Adhere to Lemmy's Code of Conduct

founded 1 year ago

MODERATORS

vatlark@lemmy.world

forkball@lemmy.world

quinten@lemmy.world

Thekingoflorda@lemmy.world

The Gambler's Fallacy makes sense logically, but it feels so wrong emotionally. (lemmy.world)

submitted 9 months ago by alt_total_loser@lemmy.world to c/showerthoughts@lemmy.world

51 comments fedilink hide all child comments

I can accept the fact that on a Roulette wheel (as long as there are no defects or imbalances in the wheel or ball) that the odds are the same each spin and previous spin outcomes have no influence over the current spin. However, if I see black come up 32 times in a row I am betting on red for the next spin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The Gambler's Fallacy is Really Odd

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] Silentiea@lemm.ee 7 points 9 months ago

You think that even in the hundred-door case? Test it. Hell, even test it in the 3 door case. It is empirically not 50%.

If the host had an even chance to show you either door, you'd be right, but since the host always shows you a goat, the two events (picking a door and choosing whether to switch) are no longer independent, since if you pick a goat it forces the host to pick the other goat.