this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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Putin is in a tight spot. He has everything to lose geopolitically in Africa and militarily in Ukraine by removing Prigozhin/Wagner from the equation. But I believe the current situation is untenable and will burst at the seams soon, one way or another. I wonder whether the loss of Wagner's influence would be a stabilizing or destabilizing event in Sub-Saharan Africa.
International interest in oil in the Sahel and mineral wealth in Central Africa are the overarching destabilizing factors.
My view is that a vacuum in "enforcers" wouldn't stabilize in the short term.
That said, Wagner's human rights attrocities have been pretty egregious in CAR and it's hard to see it as anything other than a net gain if that were to end. Probably a long tail of groups who were rolling with them/trained by them though.