126
this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
126 points (96.3% liked)
science
14464 readers
502 users here now
just science related topics. please contribute
note: clickbait sources/headlines aren't liked generally. I've posted crap sources and later deleted or edit to improve after complaints. whoops, sry
Rule 1) Be kind.
lemmy.world rules: https://mastodon.world/about
I don't screen everything, lrn2scroll
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
You realize humans have only had the ability to search for aliens using electronic equipment for less than 200 years right?
The universe is ~14 billion years old. The earth is only ~4 billion years old. Humanity is only ~200,000 years old.
You need to read about the Fermi paradox. The likelihood of extraterrestrial life existing is a mathematical certainty. We just haven't seen any due to a multitude of factors.
You're mixing up the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation.
Assuming you meant the Drake equation, more than half of the variables we have absolutely no statistical basis to decide on a fraction. Obviously they are non-zero, but they could be extremely improbable. We only have one example of intelligent life developing radio communications. Any estimate of a statistical likelihood of that using Earth as an example is meaningless without other examples.
Some pessimistic estimates give solutions as small 9.1 x 10^-13 which indicates we would be alone.
The Fermi Paradox riffs on the optimistic answer to Drake's Equation. If other intelligent life is a certainty, why haven't we found them yet?