The US is cutting its losses and moving on it seems. They aren't going to even try the Afghanistan or Vietnam approach of propping up a puppet regime. Though there's a lot of crazy people in the US government, I can see them repeating the same mistakes but expecting a different outcome.

[–] Krause@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 11 months ago (1 children)

is there any reason to believe russia would allow ukraine to build factories without bombing them?

[–] Skua@kbin.social -1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Well Russia hasn't managed to destroy Ukraine's existing manufacturing capacity, so yes. Minister of Strategic Industries Kamyshin claimed a twenty-fold increase in artillery shell production over 2023 a couple of months ago, and while he's obviously going to be leaning towards a favourable view of the situation given his job I think that the many deals signed by Ukraine's NATO suppliers to begin manufacturing within Ukraine suggest that there is some substance to his words. Russia does not have access to most of Ukraine and, despite Ukraine's lack of a real airforce, has not been able to successfully establish air superiority.

[–] Krause@lemmygrad.ml -1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Well Russia hasn’t managed to destroy Ukraine’s existing manufacturing capacity

they have though

Minister of Strategic Industries Kamyshin claimed a twenty-fold increase in artillery shell production over 2023 a couple of months ago

they can claim whatever they want for propaganda, in the real world we can observe their artillery shortages and failed offensives

despite Ukraine’s lack of a real airforce, has not been able to successfully establish air superiority

you don't need air superiority to destroy a factory, please put aside the wishful thinking for 5 minutes if you can

troops can retreat, equipment can be relocated somewhere else, a factory is a static building that you CANNOT MOVE, no matter how much air defense you put near it eventually a missile, drone or shell will go through and damage/destroy it

[–] Skua@kbin.social 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Russia is one of the biggest artillery manufacturers and stockpilers in the entire world and even they're suffering some shell constraints. There is a lot of space between "literally all the ammunition you could want" and "zero ammunition", especially in a conflict like this. Both sides are fighting in a way that will eat basically any volume of artillery ammunition that is available. So no, shell constraints do not indicate a totally destroyed domestic industry.

a factory is a static building that you CANNOT MOVE

That's why you don't build it near the front line. Ukraine is big. Russian aircraft attacking a factory in Kyiv or even further west would have to spend absolutely ages in extremely hostile airspace.