this post was submitted on 31 Dec 2023
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No no, this year for real! Because (highly technical reason that doesn't affect most users).
For real though, how Microsoft plays this year could be interesting considering the lukewarm reception to Win11 and the impending ewaste pile of Win10.
Especially if Win12 is cloud-based, like the rumors say, I could see a potential influx of Linux users
Not sure this is the year but my “highly technical reason” is that enough gamers switch.
Why this year and not the last one or the one before that?
I'm not going to claim that this year is the year, or that any will be. In regards to gaming though, two years ago the number of games which worked through Proton was quite a bit lower, and the number of anti-cheats which worked was effectively zero.
Anti-cheat support is still far from 100%, but it is significantly higher than it was even six months ago. It looks like it will only get better from here.
Microsoft plays just like it has always played - with OEM contracts and being the default OS choice. Linux remains niche as long as Microsoft has this, unless they decide to roll out a mainstream distro themselves.
Sure, but I'm getting the feeling there's a bit of dissent in Windows users, with many vowing never to use Windows 11. If MS keep making user hostile or even just user neutral decisions and Linux starts gaining a reputation of being easy to install, we could see people trying Linux rather than upgrading to Win 11.
Of course, I doubt MS is going to let that happen. They're either going to walk back some of the egregious privacy violations or do a Google and prevent you from installing alternatives.
More techy people migrating to linux would be good, but that won't change the fact that most people don't even know that they can change their os, let alone how to do it.
More techy people joining would mean that we would hopefully get more fixes to issues linux has, as there would be more people bringing attention to them and maybe there would also be more people willing to help fix them.
When those issues are fixed, we might get to step two. Honestly not even sure what that step would be, but maybe it could be that more it-departments switch over to linux, which would get more people familiar with it, which would hopefully make manufacturers more likely to ship computers with linux.
All that is going to take a hell of a lot of time. And honestly seems unlikely to happen in the next 10, heck even 20 years. People are already so used to Microsofts shenanigans that they would have to fuck up majorly to get enough people to switch that it would matter. People are lazy, for good and bad, and as long as Windows at least mostly works fine, they'll just be stuck using it.