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China bans export of rare earths processing tech over national security
(www.channelnewsasia.com)
this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2023
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Whatever people's estimations, we've yet to see this progress that you are talking about. It's an interesting race for sure.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/china-poised-to-break-5nm-barrier-huawei-lists-5nm-processor-presumably-built-with-smic-tech-defying-us-sanctions
SMIC makes 5nm chips with DUV tech when Intel can’t break 5nm with EUV and billions in subsidies.
What it implies to stretch the DUV process into ever thinner lithography: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th4E-0VFaEA
Some background on how it was made: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/11/how-huawei-made-a-cutting-edge-chip-in-china-and-surprised-the-us/
tl;dr/dw: China managed to produce small batches of semiconductors using stockpiled american and japanese equipment before sanctions kicked-in