Prigozhin finds out Putin wants him dead
Prigozhin decides "if I'm dead anyway, I'm taking Putin with me"
Lukashenko somehow convinces Prigozhin that "it's ok, Putin changed his mind and won't kill you anymore" - so Prigozhin no longer feels the need to go for a suicide mission (although how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin of this, I have no idea)

If this had really been about Shoigu or a coup or anything other than just a suicide mission, then the current result makes 0 sense. (But in that case, maybe the situation isn't really over at all)

[–] Badgernomics@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago

Nah, if Prigozhin doesn't have loyalists installed at FSB, Interior, and Defence he's a dead man. I guarantee you he knows this. You don't get into a position of power in Russia without knowing that. His lead elements were holding an Operational Rally Point just outside of Moscow when they just... turned around and a promise...? From Putin...?

No chance, Prigozhin may be a ruthless, cutthroat sociopath but he's not an idiot. Add to that Putin called him out as a terrorist, a mutineers, an enemy of the state, for Putin to U-turn makes him look weak. Sure, the leverage is there but there's no way you make him look weak and just walkway... not AND survive for very long...

Yeah, He has to have his people installed at Defence, FSB and Interior, and at that point he's in charge of the Russian Federation in all but name.

[–] SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

There's reporting that Lukashenko offered Prigozhin safe haven in Belarus.

[–] strongarm@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 year ago

Well I hope he gets a ground floor flat and likes to wear gloves a lot

[–] N00dle@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

This whole situation is so bizarre. I'm super curious what's really going on behind the scene here. Was some type of secret deal struck to make Prigozhin happy enough to turn around and leave? Hopefully more information on these events starts to leak out over the coming days from involved sources.

[–] EvilColeslaw@beehaw.org 1 points 1 year ago

I don't see how you'd ever be able to convince Prigozhin he's not going to fall out a window, get novichok'd, or find some polonium in his tea after even daring to turn and march on Moscow.