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It's amazing to me that people can make proclamations like this with absolute certainty and yet have absolutely no evidence to support them. Your hypothetical is just as likely to lead to a fascist dystopia as it is to lead to a leftist utopia. If your pattern doesn't "hold up", we all die. Whose life are you gambling with, exactly?
I am not gambling anyone's life. I have almost no power and can't do anything to create or delay a crisis. The best I will do with my limited power is try and make it so the organization on the ground is ready to attempt that leftward shift if/when the crisis comes.
It could end in a fascist dystopia, but I think that's less likely. At least in the u.s. where fascism never took off in its heyday before it had any stigma. If your talking about something with no evidence then that fascist speculation would be something, at least there's precedent for a Keynesian new deal in the U.S. I do recognize it as a possibility though and that's why I said probably, not with "absolute certainty".
If the crisis doesn't happen we may all die as well as neither party seems willing to deal with the climate catastrophe. That outcome seems way more certain to me, as shown by the repeated calls for action in the last 2 decades falling in deaf ears, than fascists taking over if a crisis does happen.
The way I see it is there's a 90% chance of severe climate catastrophe on the current course, and a 30% chance there will be a fascist takeover if there's a crisis, but a 50% chance for a green new deal. These are all completely speculative, but so is any guess on the future and I like to believe my guess has some backing in historical reality.