this post was submitted on 06 Dec 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 21 points 11 months ago

Hi, just an inter-generational message:

25 years ago, I used to be a colleague of a lead author of that report. Like the others, he flew to global conferences, gradually built up a portfolio of papers, and so became a a famous professor with an interesting life, and can now release such reports with obvious timing to influence COP28 (and thereby get government support for the team to continue such research projects...).
But the contents are not really "news", most of this was predictable by those of us who knew the science back then 25 years ago, which was also reported the hottest year for a millenium. My thoughts then were similar to some of those some you write below (->above?). So I went to protests, and (by train, bicycle) to COPs to try to bridge the gap between science and policy, and instead of papers tried to spread knowledge via interactive web tools (really new tech then). I didn't nurture a career, because I didn't expect society to survive for so long. I assisted for a while near the core of IPCC and EU policy, but without papers and flights for networking, was easily disposable. Now 25 years later I sit shivering, in relative poverty, with little influence. To keep trying, I revive my interactive climate model (admittedly needs much more at the impacts end - no such big team), still hoping such tools could communicate something papers don't. I'm not judging who was right, just telling younger people - be aware this is a long-term game.

As I wrote in another post recently, tipping points are real, but thresholds vary by region and sector, and we don't know them accurately. So if you integrate over risk you get a curve - non-linear of course, but not showing that any year is particularly special - unless we make it so, socially.