this post was submitted on 29 May 2022
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Just because revolutions are class wars doesn't mean the work like a typical war, most of the time. You won't see factory unions leading tank battles against the 2nd armor division. The American Revolution will be a rise of organization and intensity of worker agitation and national liberation movements, caused precisely by the failing power of the US, taking the reigns of power from the collapsing US state. As the US loses its grip on the international proletarian labor pool, which its currently doing a fantastic job at, the American bourgeoisie will have no choice but to bring back all those contradictions they successfully exported a century ago in a desperate attempt to retain their profit margin. Labor laws will be stripped, mass shootings will skyrocket, police repression will be rampant, and Republican/Democrat political theater will go bananas as they try desperately to get Americans to focus on literally anything but class consciousness. This all in an attempt to keep the bourgeois way of life intact.
This ironically is the best cocktail of ingredients to induce revolutionary fervor. With the USD inflating to Weimar Mark levels, a complete loss of international support and legitimacy with Europe falling to pieces over Ukraine, structural break down of the government due to political infighting, and a non-existent productive base leading to economic disintegration, the most expensive military in the world will be left with no supplies, no organization, and no soldiers (you really think US soldiers will kill their own countrymen if their not at least getting paid?) At that point the US will either have disintegrated into chaos or, if we're lucky, have an organized proletarian movement take the reigns of power locally and nationally simply by being the only real organized political force left.
I give it 15 years tops
Yes. When the moment comes, the US ruling class will use every tool available as reaction to working class movements. They obviously won't escalate to that point immediately, they know it would amount to a civil war. But that doesn't mean the steps necessary to protect bourgeois rule will not be taken and probably will be accepted by a significant amount of the US population. Already the US government has and is using huge amounts of violence to pacify protests and uprisings via the police or the national guard. If necessary, all it would take them is to call a revolutionary movement anti american, or terrorist, or foreign backed, or anything that helps justify the use of military force. Easily they can blame it on Russia, or China, or Cuba, or whatever they don't like, and then the escalation will happen as necessary. Anyways, before any of that happens, the US political establishment has proven to be very good at killing domestic revolutionary movements. Before the tanks start rolling on the streets (ie. Civil war), the US will use paramilitary means to crush the revolution. That is the police, the national guard, the CIA, or even far right shock groups. You mention the way the inflation in the Weimar republic went, but you have to remember how it ended. The left in europe and Germany thought that the sharpening contradictions would lead inevitably to socialist revolution, but instead it ended up in the most vile and brutal reaction by the bourgeoisie. The only thing America differs in that regard is that right now it seems they lack a clear Caesar figure, a person or group that unifies the factions of the ruling class against the bigger threat of revolution. The closest thing to it is war, but it isn't as sure a force as fascism to hold together the bourgeois state. That's something in my opinion the communists in the US could use, but the window of opportunity to do it is narrow before someone comes to the front in the class war and plunges the US directly into full blown fascism.
You're definitely right in the short term. There's no possible way a revolution would succeed in America as it stands right now. Things will get really bad and massive repression and open fascism will likely follow. But that can't last long. The US has almost no internal economy. Post WWI Germany at least had a relatively intact industrial base for the Nazis to seize and send into overdrive to fund its military and terror campaigns. If the US's resource supplies from puppet states in Latin America and Africa and it's manufacturing bases in China, India, and Vietnam get cut off, US society will slam to a halt. And I think this likely will happen once countries are certain the US can't retaliate against them for resisting anymore, which is coming soon enough. People won't be able to buy food or basic supplies. The military won't be able to get fuel, bullets, or jet/tank equipment. The US won't be able to have the military/police successfully do anything, be it attack its own citizens or any foreign nation. It might flail out before all this occurs and try to fire nukes at China or something, but they'd likely all get intercepted and America invaded. Call me overly optimistic but I think it will be quite shocking how rapidly the US state falls apart, and stays broken, without it's imperial spoils