I don't understand what the endgame is supposed to be here. In order to achieve its stated goals (demilitarization, denazification, catching their list of enemies), Russia needs to occupy (which they said they won't, which makes no sense). There's no way Ukraine's govt can agree to or implement these demands.

So Russia will in fact need to occupy Ukraine and install a puppet govt. But how the are they ever going to get out of there ever again? That new government will get removed as soon as they leave.

So long term occupation it has to be, which will be a total disaster and that's on top of the sanctions. Russia just fucked itself, no? How does any of this make sense?

[–] cyclohexane@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago

It is not Russia's interest to occupy Ukraine, imo. Ukraine is a massive country with tens of millions of people, many of which do not want this invasion. Russia's best interest is to pressure Ukraine to surrender and fulfill their demands. The more territory and important places Russia takes, the more pressure that puts on Ukraine. Occupation is the worst case scenario, but I hope it won't come to that.

Installing a puppet government isn't the only solution. I think Russia's best chance is to weaken Ukraine's army and its military infrastructure, and then enforce a federalist rule in Ukraine. This will give more power to the pro-Russian parts of Ukraine, and make it more difficult for Ukraine to be one big United country against Russia.

[–] ArchimedesTesseract@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

It seems like a rolling advertisement to join NATO. "Got a kleptomaniac neighbor with a penchant for invasion? Call 1-800-GET-NATO today!" Internal tension in Russia must be pretty high in order to justify this cluster.