this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2022
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That more or less echoes what I just said. It's really hard to tell from the outside what Russia is planning. It has, however, already started with a litany of cyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian and military targets.
So Russia overslept its own invasion date? Which it helpfully told to western officials beforehand?
Its not so hard to tell what Russia is planning if you follow Russian news. For one thing, they certainly dont plan an invasion of Ukraine, because there is absolutely nothing of value left after 8 years of mismanagement by the coup regime. Most of the industry was dismantled, and most skilled people left the country. Now there is only corruption.
Again, this is all Western countries and Ukraine trying to read Russian intentions from troop build ups, an increase in cyber attacks, shaky intelligence, etc. Exactly no one is saying that Russia is absolutely going to invade in full force. They are saying Russia is putting itself in the position to do so. It looks like this is partially to avoid getting into any sticky spots with their own citizens being stuck in the middle of a Russian invasion.
There's a constant war with separatists and Russian invaders that's draining the country. There's also corruption, but that's been endemic for decades. So yes, there is a problem with a brain drain. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by industry being dismantled. GDP is recovering after a sharp dip after 2013, but still not back to its height.
Exactly, shaky intelligence. I would even say lies, because nothing they say has any relation with reality. Russia is not the one who starts wars, but the one who ends them. And the Russian government keeps repeating day after day that they wont invade Ukraine. They are a million times more trustworthy than the war criminals in Washington or London.
There are no Russian invaders. If you think otherwise, show me a single picture of a Donbass soldier with Russian insignias. Ukraine lost at least 10 million people (20% of the population) since the collapse of the USSR. And there hasnt been a proper census in years, so in reality its probably much lower. The only reason the country hasnt collapsed is because western countries are pumping in billions of us dollars.
Russia soldiers without insignia have invaded and fought in Ukraine before under the direction of the Kremlin. These were the infamous "little green men" who occupied Crimea. Russia originally denied their involvement, only acknowledging them after Crimea had been fully taken. There's every reason to think that Russian backed separatists in the Donbass region are likely getting the same sort of help.
Ukraine is losing population, yes. The problem is that, as you can see from your graph, it has been doing so across every government. The post-Euromaiden protests government is far from special in this regard. In fact, the only difference it has from previous governments is that it had a slice of its land cut off by Russia, so in that sense it "lost" extra population.
At least try to make it believable when you make things up. It is true that Russian soldiers came to Crimea, to ensure the safety of the referendum. Most of the population welcomed the soldiers, and even most Ukrainian soldiers ended up switching sides and joining the Russian army.
It is absolute nonsense to call that an invasion, and they were certainly not involved in any fighting.
As for Donbass, Russia can easily obliterate all Ukrainian units in the region using artillery and air strikes, no need to move a single soldier over the border.
What I find curious is that you dont have any problem at all with NATO troops going to Ukraine, and teaching their military how to fight Russia. Is that what you call peaceful behaviour?