this post was submitted on 17 Sep 2023
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Congress will extend copyright again, they always do.
Disney seems to have seen some writing on the wall and pivoted into a trademark focus instead of endless copyright extensions. This is probably why they've been using Steamboat Willy more in some logos in the past few years. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another extension, but it's never gotten this close before and they don't seem to be campaigning to extend it at the moment.
Even if they could get it through in the US plenty other countries would just ignore them.
There is no way that happens at this point. It's not procedurally possible for Congress to pass one by the end of the year. Even a Congress that can get things done faster than the Congress we actually have would not be able to do it. Disney would have to have started the process 5 years ago.
And there's a very good reason for that. Since the last copyright extension, Disney can get everything they want with trademark law instead of copyright. They also saw what happened with public outrage over Net Neutrality; the Internet was nascent the last time copyright was extended, but grassroots mobilization would rise up against them this time around. The fight would be expensive, and they don't need to have it. They can let Steamboat Willy go into public domain on Jan 1 without any great loss.
I've been saying this for three years now: https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/lbyttl/comment/gm00zl0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
And 5 months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/12yh7to/comment/jhnj7k4/
People seem to be convinced that the worst thing that can happen will definitely happen. It shows little understanding of how copyright and trademark works, how Congress gets things done, and why Disney doesn't need to pick a fight on this issue. Their lawyers are evil, but not dumb.