this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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Give it 5 - 10 years. Tesla will be a company that makes and maintains a charging station network and sells batteries to the other auto makers.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that they can't hack it in an automotive sales industry. Which is fine, frankly. I think battery manufacturing and charging network are pretty complimentary industries and provide a decent revenue stream into the future, License the charging tech to other automakers early and get some vendor lock-in going, and the company could be in it for the long haul.
They might even be able to keep making a couple EVs, to prove new charging or battery tech, much like how Google keeps making Pixel phones to essentially prove and market new Android features.
My limited understanding of the matter is that their batteries are overpriced and nothing special compared to alternatives.
The real game changer that seems to be coming down the pipeline is the solid state battery Toyota has been teasing. If they manage to bring that to market while holding important patents on the technology it's basically game over for other kinds of battery for EVs.
Tesla makes batteries for $80/kwh. Everyone else is paying $120.
Toyota has been teasing this for years now. It's a bit like fusion energy at this point, always on the brink of a revolution that never comes.
Are you referring to Tesla's 4680's or the cells that Tesla gets from Pansonic?
Re: Panasonic
Tesla's been refining their cells with Panasonic for quite awhile and have done things like substantially reduced the cobalt used compared to others (at least as of couple years ago). I'm not sure what the differences in wh/kg are compared to others today.
Panasonic is also much more efficient at making those cells at scale which gives Tesla an edge on their cost.
Tesla has always made their own batteries (the grouping of the cells). Their battery + BMS on the other hand is substantially better than other manufacturers. They can manufacture the battery much cheaper than others, and the BMS keeps it running smoothly.
For example - The Fords Mach E performance model can't (or couldn't) even do more than a launch or two before having to throttle itself due to heat. They currently have recalls happening due to contactors having problems with heat.
Re: Tesla's 4680 Cells
Right now, they're nothing special from a wh/kg perspective, what they're main goal for them is to be substantially cheaper to manufacture than the cells other manufactures make. If you can make them for 2/3 the cost you'll have huge advantage over everyone else, and then also you don't have to pay the mark up to Panasonic or LG either.
Only time will tell if their chemistry/anode/cathode improvements will make their cells better than what other manufactures are producing. Personally, I'd be nervous to get a 1st / 2nd gen version of these cells/batteries while they work things out.
Re: Solid state
If that ever happens and they are cost competitive to produce, then that'll be a big deal ya. What if they aren't cost competitive though?
Will you be willing to pay $10-15k more for the same range but faster charging, higher safety, and more lifecycles?
You're right though, they are the future eventually.