this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2023
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[–] Arotrios@kbin.social 108 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (12 children)

Okay, before people start beating me up, I'm not arguing for complacency, but this headline is more than a bit click-baity.

This is a small poll, and per the poll's methodology (scroll down, keep scrolling.... nope keep going... ok... there you go - emphasis mine):

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate.

Not only did they over sample Republicans, their margin of error is almost 4% within that group.

This feels like the NYT attempting to establish a narrative based on a very small, biased sampling of data. Remember that the mass media wants to amp up the uncertainty levels (which drive engagement and advertising revenue), and with Trump basically blowing out the primary, they'll need another spectacle to ensure that it appears to be a close contest down to the finish line. The timing of the poll release and the headline is also suspect, especially as this poll was taken before the news of the latest indictment, yet presented as if it's a reaction to today's news.

That being said, I think it is an accurate portrayal of sentiment from those who still consider themselves Republicans. I don't believe, given the small sample sizes and admitted bias, that it's an accurate picture of the country.

Again, that's not an argument for political complacency - rather, it's one against media driven narratives relying on biased polling that make you scroll down six pages of tables to find their methodology.

[–] FrankFrankson@lemmy.world 76 points 1 year ago (10 children)

It's also a telephone poll...that guarantees it's mostly people 50 and older because who the fuck under 50 answers phone calls from unknown numbers?

[–] cmhickman358@lemmy.world 52 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I rarely answer calls from known numbers

[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I don't even answer calls from me.

[–] ajoebyanyothername@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's OK, I don't answer calls from you either.

[–] thanevim@kbin.social 6 points 1 year ago

That's especially good since I haven't been calling you, which means that's a spoofed number

[–] JoumanaKayrouz@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

I’d answer your calls. Just call me 1-900-FAT-CHIX.

[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

You'll only make your mother cry.

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