Fediverse

No, I don't think the Fediverse can replace social media.

People are drawn to social media exactly because of its flaws. The algorithms are what keep people engaged.

When the first waves of Twitter refugees hit Mastodon, a common complaint was that the site felt dead. There was plenty of activity, but the truth is that Twitter's algorithm was designed to be engaging while Mastodon is more of a "you get what you want to get" kind of deal.

Then there's federation. It's impossible for every server to federate and exchange content with every other server in the Fediverse. The network just doesn't scale that well. That means you'll have to be aware of communities on other servers and interact with those if you want to find like minded people. On traditional social media, you can probably find a complete community to your tastes just by using the search bar.

Then there's the technical challenge. Federated series don't scale as well. You can see this when a Mastodon post hits the front page of Hacker News and the instance instantly goes down as hundreds of thousands of requests come in, some users, some bots. Twitter can withstand being linked, but the server running on some poor guy's VPS simply can't.

Money is also a challenge. Servers cost money and moderators are only free up to a certain point. Social media companies can afford their servers, either through VC money or through conducting business, but there's no profit model for the Fediverse. You can set up donations, but you'll probably still be doing all the work to maintain the servers unpaid.

Interestingly, BlueSky seems to be going in a different direction. I don't know if it's part of the Fediverse (they are working on federation) but their designs allow for the things that pull people into Twitter while also being hacked by large spenders. Nostr also solves some of the Fediverse's problems while introducing others, but I don't expect them to end up as big as BlueSky. But hey, who knows, maybe someone will write an efficient bridge between these services so the Fediverse can enjoy the success of its competition.

The Fediverse is great for what it does, and for many people it will be a great alternative to social media. However, without the constant pull of algorithms and a way to make money, I don't think it'll ever replace social media. And, to be honest, I wouldn't want it to; without a significant amount of extra moderators, the toxicity of traditional social media will just overwhelm all the attempted alternatives anyway.