World News

Cuba is in the midst of an ongoing humanitarian crisis, and October’s widespread power outages are only adding to the Cuban people’s troubles. For the last six decades, Cuba has been on the receiving end of myriad sanctions by the United States government. This blockade has proved devastating to human life.

Reporting on Cuba’s blackouts have either omitted or paid brief lip-service to the effects of U.S. sanctions on the Cuban economy, and how those sanctions have created the conditions for the crisis. Instead, media have focused on the inefficient and authoritarian Communist government as the cause of the island’s troubles.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4725833

Maria Troyanivska had come home early the night a Russian drone hit her bedroom.

“It flew in through the window, right into her room,” her mother Viktoria tells the BBC. After the explosion, she and her husband Volodymyr ran from the next room to find their daughter’s room on fire.

“We tried to put it out, but everything was burning so strongly,” she says through tears. “It was impossible to breathe – we had to leave.”

The Russian Shahed drone killed the 14-year-old in her bed, in her suburban apartment in Kyiv, last month.

“She died immediately, and then burned,” her mother said. “We had to bury her in a closed coffin. She had no chance of surviving.” BBC/Kamil Dayan Khan Maria's bedroom in suburban Kyiv

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4724783

China should face “a higher cost” for supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine, the EU’s incoming foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has said.

The former Estonian prime minister was speaking to MEPs during a three-hour hearing before she takes office, when she listed Ukraine’s victory as a priority – stronger words than vaguer formulas of support voiced by some EU politicians.

“Victory of Ukraine is a priority for us all; the situation on the battlefield is very difficult,” Kallas told MEPs in her opening remarks. “That is why we must keep on working every day, today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes, and with as much military, financial and humanitarian aid as needed.”

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4696071

Archived link

The European Union should directly use $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of war-torn Ukraine, says Kaja Kallas, the candidate for the top EU foreign policy position.

Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister who has been nominated as the EU’s high representative, said member states should abandon their reservations about directly seizing assets, citing Kyiv’s “legitimate claims” to the funds after the Russian attack.

[...]

“We recognize that Russia has legitimate claims against us because we have their assets. But Ukraine also has legitimate claims against Russia because they are destroying Ukraine every day,” Kallas said

She hinted that Russia might have the opportunity to “reclaim” assets as part of the settlement, but added: “Given what’s going on, I doubt there’s anything left.”

To taxpayers who don’t want EU member states to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, Kallas said: “We shouldn’t do that. Those who are destroying Ukraine will pay for it.”

Kallas said Estonia’s initiative to send 0.25 percent of its gross domestic product to Ukraine should be adopted by other member states.

She also said that EU sanctions against Russia should not be renewed every six months and should be permanent until the 27 member states decide to lift them. “It would be better if the situation was reversed,” Kallas said.

[...]

This year, the G7 reached an agreement to seize profits from Russia’s frozen assets. However, the plan does not include confiscation. Some countries considered the potential legal implications of such a move and the risk to the euro, while others, including the US and UK, advocated bolder options such as outright asset confiscation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine knows how to handle Russia’s frozen assets. He proposed handing over the entire $300 billion to Kyiv. “Frankly, this is Ukrainian money,” he said.

The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s total economic, social and other monetary losses from the war will be $499 billion by the end of 2023.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4695910

Ante Ivkovic herded sheep in Bosnia-Herzegovina with his father as a child. Years later, without his consent or knowledge, he says, a wind farm was built on his property by a Chinese company.

The Chinese wind farm company, headquartered in the capital Sarajevo, declined to comment on camera. In an email, they stated they relied on Bosnian documents that confirmed the concession's legality and claimed there were no unresolved ownership issues.

Ivkovic, with the help of his lawyer, is pursuing legal action to prove his ownership. His lawyer is gathering evidence from archives to build the case.

[...]

Chinese wind energy companies have been aggressively expanding into the European market, undercutting European competitors by significant margins, thanks to state subsidies. This is evident not only in Bosnia, but also in neighboring Croatia.

[...]

The EU has taken notice. Under Ursula von der Leyen's leadership, the EU is scrutinizing Chinese wind farms, investigating whether state subsidies are giving them an unfair advantage over European competitors. Lobbyists warn that with every new wind farm, China tightens its grip on Europe's energy supply.

"On a modern wind turbine there are around 300 sensors on the different components of the turbine, which are giving information to the wind farm owner and operator, and to the turbine manufacturer about the performance. And many people in Europe are saying, 'do we want to give that power to entities outside of Europe to control the functioning of wind turbines?'," says Giles Dickson, the CEO of WindEurope.

[...]

Will a retiree be able to assert his rights against a 160-million-euro project? This case will help determine how much property rights are worth in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4701745

Archived link

China seized the shoal, which lies west of the main Philippine island of Luzon, in 2012, and has since restricted access to Filipino fishermen there. A 2016 ruling by an international arbitration court found that most Chinese claims in the South China Sea were invalid but Beijing refuses to abide by it.

[...]

Tensions between China and the Philippines have been building over their competing claims to Scarborough Shoal and other outcrops in the South China Sea. Clashes have occurred including the Chinese coast guard firing water cannons at Filipino ships.

[...]

"What we see is an increasing demand by Beijing for us to concede our sovereign rights in the area," Manila's Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said after meeting Australian counterpart Richard Marles, adding that the Philippines was a "victim of Chinese aggression".

[...]

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce, including parts claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

At least 35 people have been killed in a car attack in southern China, believed to be the deadliest known act of public violence in the country in decades.

Police say a man crashed his car into a stadium in Zhuhai on Monday where he ran down groups of people exercising on the sports track. At least 45 people - among them elderly and children - were reportedly injured.

While reporting about the attack, BBC China correspondent Stephen McDonell was angrily ordered to stop filming.

It is not clear who the man who tried to stop the reporting was, though when sensitive stories like this unfold in China, local Communist Party officials organise groups of cadres to pretend to be outraged locals who have been given the role of targeting foreign reporters so as to prevent any coverage.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4664250

• Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen opposes imposing neutrality on Ukraine
• Valtonen questions Russia's trustworthiness in adhering to agreements
• Forcing Ukraine to accept terms could undermine international system, Valtonen says

Forcing neutrality onto Ukraine will not bring about a peaceful solution to the crisis with Russia, Finland's foreign minister said on Monday, adding that Moscow could not be trusted to adhere to any agreement it signs.

[...]

With the prospect of U.S. president elect Donald Trump seeking to end the conflict as quickly possible and concerns from some allies that the terms could be imposed in Kyiv, one scenario could be to force a neutral status on Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly demanded Ukraine remain neutral for there to be peace, which would de facto kill its aspirations for NATO membership.

Russia trust issues

[...] Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen poured cold water on using the "Finlandisation" model, pointing out that firstly Helsinki had fended off Russia in World War 2 and that despite the ensuing peace had always continued to arm itself fearing a new conflict.

"I'm against it (Finlandisation), yes. Let's face it, Ukraine was neutral before they were attacked by Russia," Valtonen, whose country has a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia, said on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum.

[...]

The Ukraine invasion led both Finland and Sweden to abandon decades of military non-alignment and seek safety in the NATO camp.

Valtonen questioned whether Russia could be trusted even if it agreed a deal and said forcing Ukraine's hand to accept terms against its will would tear down the international system.

"I really want to avoid a situation where any European country, or the United States for that matter, starts negotiating over the heads of Ukraine," she said.

"A larger power can not just grab territory, but also essentially weaken the sovereignty of another nation," she said.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4673855

Ukraine is close to setting up three new joint ventures with European weapons producers in its effort to boost arms output during the war with Russia, the first deputy prime minister said.

Yulia Svyrydenko, who is also the economy minister, said five joint ventures with Western weapon producers had already been set up, including with German and Lithuanian companies. Several arms producers have opened offices in Ukraine.

"We have three more agreements with European companies in the final stages to set up joint ventures," Svyrydenko told Reuters in an interview in the government headquarters in central Kyiv.

[...]

The authorities are still tight-lipped about details of the defence industry, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in October that Ukraine could produce four million drones annually and was ramping up its military production, including missiles, a "drone missile" and transport vehicles.

[...]

Germany's weapons giant Rheinmetall has already launched its first defence factory in Ukraine, specializing in the maintenance of combat vehicles, with plans to start manufacturing Lynx infantry fighting vehicles by the year's end.

Britain-based BAE Systems, Franco-German KDNS, the Babcock defence and aerospace company and MyDefence, which specializes in counter-drone technology, have teamed up with Ukrainian producers and set up local offices.

German weapons producer Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft is building a service centre in Ukraine jointly with a private Ukrainian weapons producer, Svyrydenko said.

Developing domestic defence production was a boost to the broader economy, which is still smaller than prior to the war despite two years of economic growth, she said.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4666944

Russia exposes alarming patterns of torture used as a State-sanctioned tool of repression to stifle dissent and intimidate communities abroad, according to a report conducted by Mariana Katzarova, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Russian Federation.

"Torture is used as a State sanctioned tool for systematic oppression, to maintain control and to stifle dissent", she says.

According to her research, this goes beyond isolated cases. Torture is frequently aimed at political prisoners, critics of the ongoing war in Ukraine, and migrant communities worldwide.

Normalisation of torture

One of the report’s most unsettling revelations is the portrayal of torture in Russian media.

The independent expert described the aftermath of a March terrorist attack in Moscow, where members of the Tajik minority “who haven't been tried yet and haven't been found guilty” were tortured through electric shocks and mutilation.

Following the broadcast, there were reports of law enforcement carrying out widespread sweeps, arresting and allegedly abusing migrant workers from Central Asia.

LGBTQIA+ individuals in Chechnya have also received brutal treatment from State officials there. Ms. Katzarova reported that members of the LGBTQIA+ community were systematically detained, tortured, and threatened with death unless they agreed to volunteer as soldiers in Ukraine.

Judicial impunity, no accountability

A key issue raised in the report is the failure of the Russian judicial system to prosecute torture cases adequately. Under Russian law, torture is not classified as a distinct criminal offence, allowing perpetrators to evade justice through lesser charges such as “abuse of power or authority.”

“Here we have a judicial system which is so politically influenced,” she expressed, “that there is no justice for the victims of torture.” Without recourse to the European Court of Human Rights, Russian victims must now rely solely on the UN system, which lacks the authority to pursue legal action.

Ms. Katzarova urged governments worldwide to use their criminal justice systems to prosecute torture cases from Russia under universal jurisdiction, an international principle that allows courts to try cases regardless of where the crime occurred.

The Special Rapporteur like all other independent UN human rights experts. works on a voluntary basis, is not a UN staff member and receives no salary for her work. The experts are appointed by the UN Human Rights Council and are independent from any government or organization.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4667105

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4663781

China has recently opened the so-called “Xinjiang Hotan Xueyuan (Institute)” in Hotan, as reported on November 10 by the official Chinese publication, Xinjiang Daily. According to the report, this full-time, government-controlled institution is the first of its kind in Hotan, aimed at increasing the influence of Chinese policies in the region.

[...]

Uyghur observers have expressed concern, suggesting that the institute’s real purpose is political rather than educational, with the institution serving as a tool for Chinese political agendas rather than providing meaningful benefits to the local Uyghur population. China chose the term “Xueyuan” (Institute) instead of the Uyghur term “Mektep,” or even the widely accepted English term “Institute.” This language choice is seen as part of China’s broader effort to erode the Uyghur language and culture.

[...]

Uyghur commentator Erkinjan said that “China’s investment in Hotan’s education is not out of genuine concern for Uyghurs. Rather, it aims to promote Chinese assimilation through education, strengthen the Party’s political propaganda, and cultivate individuals who will support China’s colonial control and governance of the Uyghur homeland.”

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4632724

This coercive practice, known as “distant water fishing” (远洋捕捞), involves poorer inland governments reaching beyond their jurisdictions to “catch” companies based in wealthier coastal provinces. They accuse them of fraud or other wrongdoing, freeze and confiscate their assets, and then compel them to pay large fines.

A government-run research organization earlier published a memo suggesting that nearly 10,000 companies operating in the city of Shenzhen and elsewhere in Guangdong Province have suffered such “cross-jurisdiction law enforcement.” That memo, meant for internal circulation, attracted widespread attention after it was published in part in an October media report.

[...]

A top economist, Zhou Tianyong (周天勇), had warned in late September that local governments across China have been extorting money from entrepreneurs using the Chinese Communist Party’s “disciplinary commissions.” These commissions, responsible for enforcing Party ideology and discipline, have detained entrepreneurs in their “liuzhi” detention system, where detainees are routinely tortured, intimidating them so they agree to pay the money demanded. Zhou’s post has since been deleted.

[...]

The Chinese government has sought to jumpstart its sputtering economy and restore business confidence by reiterating the Party’s support for private entrepreneurship.

But whatever reassurances the government may profess, in authoritarian systems where the laws are under the government’s control, nobody is truly safe.

[Edit typo.]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4643249

Moldova said two Russian “decoy” drones that are used to mislead Ukrainian air defences during attacks violated Moldovan airspace and crashed deep inside its territory on Sunday, endangering the population.

The drones were found in the northern village of Borosenii Noi and the southern village of Firladeni, local police said, after a Russian drone attack on neighbouring Ukraine. No one was reported hurt.

“We firmly condemn these aggressive incursions and reiterate our condemnation of Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine,” Deputy Prime Minister Mihai Popșoi said.

Moldova, which lies between Ukraine and NATO member Romania, was formerly a part of the Soviet Union and is now seeking to join the European Union by 2030 under pro-Western President Maia Sandu.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4642877

Russia and Ukraine have carried out their largest drone attacks against each other since the start of the war.

Russia's defence ministry said it intercepted 84 Ukrainian drones over six regions, including some approaching Moscow, which forced flights to be diverted from three of the capital's major airports.

Ukraine's air force said Russia launched 145 drones towards every part of the country on Saturday night, with most shot down.

[...]

Ukraine's attempted strike on Moscow was also its biggest attack on the capital since the war began, and was described as "massive" by the region's governor.

Most of the drones were downed in the Ramenskoye, Kolomna and Domodedovo districts, officials said.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4632200

"The war has to end in a manner that there is accountability -- not only economic recovery and justice, but also accountability," says EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

He also suggested that $300 billion of Russian state assets frozen in the West could eventually be used to help Ukraine rebuild after the war.

"That could be used in order to pay for the accountability and for the compensation for the people who suffer it and for the destruction that has been produced by the Russian invasion," Borrell said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and some of Moscow's lower-ranking troops have been tried in absentia in Ukraine for individual incidents.

Ukraine has made prosecuting Russia's crimes a key part of its proposal for any eventual peace agreement.

Speculation about a collapse of the coalition had grown since last week after Mr. Lindner wrote a position paper, leaked to the news media, that challenged the progressive fiscal policies of his two left-of-center coalition partners. Many of his proposals, like the end to national climate policies or cuts to social services, appeared designed to antagonize them. Experts saw the paper as Mr. Lindner’s attempt to get himself pushed out of the coalition without having to leave it himself. The opposition, which has been calling for an end to the coalition, called it the “divorce document.”

Russia has suffered its worst ever month for casualties since the start of the war in Ukraine, the UK chief of defence staff has told the BBC. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia’s forces suffered an average of about 1,500 dead and injured "every single day" in October, bringing its losses to 700,000 since the war began in February 2022.

Russia does not disclose the number of its war dead, but Western defence officials have said October's death toll was the heaviest so far.

[...]

While allies of US President-elect Donald Trump insist that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may have to cede territory to bring the conflict to an end, Sir Tony insisted that Western allies would be resolute for "as long as it takes".

"That’s the message President Putin has to absorb and the reassurance for President Zelensky," he told the programme.

Archived version

The Chinese leadership is reportedly considering offering tariff cuts, visa exemptions, and other incentives to U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. This strategy, termed “unilateral opening,” represents a shift from China’s traditional quid-pro-quo approach to economic and diplomatic deals.

Despite this, China faces resistance, with the European Union (EU) expressing discontent over China’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, are growing increasingly wary of China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea.

U.S. President-elect Trump promised to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports poses a significant threat to Xi Jinping‘s economic model, which is heavily reliant on manufacturing and exports [due to China's structured overcapacity].

Archived version

Since the summer of 2023, Russia's key interest rate has been rising steadily, making loans more expensive and pushing up debt burdens. The rate now stands at 21 percent, and the Central Bank is expected to raise it again in December. Businesses have already begun reporting a rise in late payments from counterparties — a potential warning sign of looming defaults, as many companies find it nearly impossible to meet debt obligations with interest rates above 20 percent. Meduza explains whether these fears are justified, how soon a wave of bankruptcies might hit, and why the Central Bank seems unconcerned.

Many companies in Russia now face a serious risk of bankruptcy, and it seems there’s little they can do to change the situation. The roots of this crisis go back to 2022, right after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that time, Russia’s Central Bank raised the key interest rate to 20 percent per annum, effectively bringing all lending in the country to a halt. By April, however, the first major rate cut took place, followed by another in May, and within a few months, the rate had fallen back to 7.5 percent. Forecasts anticipated that this trend would continue and that loans would become more affordable.

Archived version

In a joint statement, Lawyers for Lawyers, The Law Society of England and Wales (‘the Law Society’), Lawyers’ Rights Watch Canada, Asian Lawyers Network, the International Bar Association Human Rights Institute, 29 Principles, The Rights Practice, and the Council of Bars and Law Societies of Europe (CCBE) express grave concern about human rights lawyer and legal scholar, Dr Xu Zhiyong who is currently on hunger strike in Lunan prison, Shandong province in China.

Mr Xu started his hunger strike on 4 October 2024 to call attention to the inhumane treatment he is being subjected to in prison.

[...] Mr Xu is held in a cell with three other detainees who have been instructed by prison guards to monitor and torment him, even when he is using the toilet. In the prison, he is only referred to as “prisoner No. 003”, rather than his real name. His family have been granted access to visit him once a month. However, they have experienced threats and harassment which has prevented them from visiting. Furthermore, authorities have refused to deliver his letters to his family or his girlfriend Li Qiaochu, a feminist activist, and have not permitted him to contact them by phone.1 This activity violates China’s Prison Law (1994) and the United Nations Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners (the Nelson Mandela Rules).

[...]

Archived version

Australia's national intelligence chief has sounded an alarm about an "emerging axis" of countries supporting Russia in its brutal invasion of Ukraine, cautioning that the strategic development was "profoundly troubling" for the Western countries supporting Kyiv.

[...]

Andrew Shearer, Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence, said the nexus, which included China, Iran, and North Korea, warranted thorough evaluation.

Naming North Korea and China as the main pillars of the Axis, Shearer stated that Moscow's ongoing aggression has been made possible largely by Beijing's consistent diplomatic and economic support.

"The massive provision by China of dual-use assistance to Putin, and economic support and diplomatic support is keeping Putin's army in the field in Ukraine, killing innocent Ukrainians just as surely as if they were providing artillery ammunition and missiles," Shearer said.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4509062

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has congratulated his future US counterpart Donald Trump on his re-election.

[...]

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) commented on the election [in a press conference ...] "I have been saying for a long time that Europe must take a bigger role. We cannot count so much on US support. Of course, the United States has other interests," the PM said.

[...]

In Orpo’s view, peace must be achieved in Ukraine, but not under any conditions.

"Peace must be attained on Ukraine's terms," he said. "We have our own experience from history that if the big ones agree over [others'] heads, it is not in the interest of a small or independent nation, and hopefully this will be kept clearly in mind when a peace agreement is possibly made."

[...]

Former president Sauli Niinistö, who met with Trump multiple times, struck a cautious note in regard to the possible ramifications for Nato and Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Niinistö commented to Yle about Trump’s assertion that he will end the war in Ukraine quickly.

"I haven't seen a detailed plan on the matter, if there is one. Rather, that will have to be considered after we see what he is really going to do," Niinistö said.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4507826

Archived link

Several videos shared online by Foxconn workers in Zhengzhou, Henan province, depict workers fainting due to long hours of overtime work in October. Given the demanding schedules, workers asked,

On 8 October, a video on Douyin described a female worker being taken to the hospital after days of night work. Three days later, another video (which has since been removed) reported that two workers fainted in the F area of the Foxconn facility. Additionally, a video uploaded on 12 October (also removed) reported another incident of a worker fainting in a workshop. China Labour Bulletin was unable to verify whether these reported cases overlapped.

Foxconn factories in Henan have significantly extended working hours following the release of the new iPhone models, leading many workers to believe this contributed to recent fainting incidents.

[...]

Similar arrangements for longer working hours were also reported at Foxconn factories in Shenzhen, although no fainting incidents have been reported.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4474456

Archived link

As China continues to grapple with a shrinking population, new data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs reveals a significant decline in marriage registrations for the first nine months of 2024. Only 4.747 million couples registered their marriages nationwide during this period, marking a year-on-year decrease of 943,000 couples. These figures, highlighted in a Reuters analysis of official data, underscore the ongoing challenge the country faces in encouraging young people to marry and start families.

This trend is a setback for Chinese lawmakers who have been working to counteract the country’s population decline through policy interventions and cultural campaigns.

[...]

The drop in marriage registrations in 2024 follows an earlier increase observed in 2023, when 5.690 million couples registered to marry during the first nine months of the year. This year’s decrease signals a return to the downward trend China has experienced over the past decade. As marriage rates decline, so too do birth rates—a significant concern for a country with a rapidly aging population. Government data showed China’s birth rate dropped for a second consecutive year in 2023, prompting officials to launch initiatives to boost marriage and birth rates in major cities.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of reversing this trend. Recently, he called on Chinese women to play a “critical role” in family building, urging them to establish a “new trend of family” that aligns with the country’s demographic goals. His remarks reflect a broader government effort to revive traditional family structures while fostering a “new-era” culture that celebrates marriage and childbearing.

China’s economic climate is a primary driver behind the decline in marriage registrations. Many young adults are struggling to secure stable employment and affordable housing, which has caused them to delay or forego marriage altogether. Urban centers, particularly megacities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have seen a significant rise in the cost of living, further deterring young couples from committing to long-term partnerships and family planning. The price of housing, healthcare, and education has soared, forcing many young adults to prioritize financial security over starting families.

[...]

Five years ago, later came knocking.

A referendum backed by the United Nations — and funded by the US and other Western powers — asked Bougainvilleans: Would you like independence?

About 98% voted yes.

Toroama has been busy ever since. Elected president in 2020, he is determined to found a nation-state that will forever ensure that this island’s inhabitants rule themselves — as did their ancestors for eons.

Achieving this requires detaching from Papua New Guinea. At some point, its lawmakers will decide whether to honor the referendum and let Bougainville go. Fewer than half would likely vote to turn the island loose, according to Luther Wenge, a prominent Papua New Guinean parliamentarian and provincial governor.