The Trump administration lifted its suspension of military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine, and Kyiv signaled that it was open to a 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia, pending Moscow’s agreement, American and Ukrainian officials said Tuesday following talks in Saudi Arabia.

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[–] ladicius@lemmy.world 9 points 11 hours ago

This ceasefire was ordered by American president Putin.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 19 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Let's see what this will bring. A long ceasefire would be catastrophic: The Russia currently cannot train its soldiers, because they keep losing troops a little bit faster than they can hire new ones. If they can have a pause from the fighting, they can use the pause for training a large amount of soldiers so that they will be much more efficient in battle than they have been until now.

Just one month... It would probably still not give enough strength for the Russia.

Ukraine still controls part of the Russia's territory in the Kursk province. This makes Putin unlikely to want a ceasefire that would freeze the front into a de facto international border. My guess is that Ukraine is hoping for the Russia to decline the offer, because the Russia cannot accept a ceasefire where Ukraine would retain some of actual Russian territory. If Ukraine is unlucky and the Russia somehow does accept the ceasefire, then in 30 days they can continue fighting and hope that the Russia will collapse. If Russians decline the offer, Trump might feel betrayed by Putin who had promised him we really really wants peace. That will probably shift USA's favour towards Ukraine.

[–] bluGill@fedia.io 4 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Ukraine is building up their military capacity. They will continue to work on better drones. They will continue to train their soldiers. Their EU allies (and others around the world) are likely to continue upping their military spending and research. The longer the cease fire the better it is for Ukraine, so long as the above two do not change.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Then again, there's always the risk of the ceasefire becoming permanent. That would de facto mean Ukraine losing this war. The front would become a de facto international border, with the Russia gaining a huge land grab. That would enable Putin to advertise himself as the victor in this war, which would enable the Russia to make another offensive in some 5 years from now.

If the sanctions against the Russia are not relieved, then its economy will probably crash quite soon anyway, at which point the Russia will probably leave the Ukrainian territory – if you need to let go of your pride in order to start fixing your economy, then even if first they choose to retain their pride, eventually they'll let go of it and go with sensible action instead.

It looks like Putin is not going to want a ceasefire now, because he fears the next attack might not turn out feasible for some reason. But for Ukraine a permanent ceasefire would be a catastrophe because it would with a high likelihood end with Ukraine not existing by 2035.

[–] bluGill@fedia.io 1 points 55 minutes ago (1 children)

Russia's economy is in trouble, but they can likely sustain war for a few more years at least.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 17 minutes ago

That's very unlikely. Their inflation is around 20 percent, their economy is not producing almost anything else than war materials.

There have already been two cases of the Ruble starting to fall and the Russia stopping that fall by buying Rubles with tens of billions of euros each time. They had 600 billion in cash in 2022, of which half was frozen. Of the 300 billion they've got available a few tens of billions are left. That will run out at latest by summer of this year.

After that, they have no money for stabilizing their currency anymore. Eventually the Ruble will end up in hyperinflation, at which point it gets very difficult convincing people to join the Russian army. They now do it for money, and once money stops having a useful value, it becomes impossible finding soldiers. And without soldiers, they cannot wage a war.

They can sustain a war for an absolute maximum of 1½ years, most likely it's more like 10-ish months, and they might be about to crash into a wall already before summer, if the "insider information" Trump claims to have about the Russia's situation is something told to him by Putin.

But, why do you think they could sustain the war that long?