The more I read about what Putin is allowing, the more I want him to fuck up and attack a NATO target. This can’t end soon enough.
this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2023
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I agree on the ending soon enough, however I think if Russia did hit a NATO state, Article 4 might not lead to an Article 5. NATO is already at a Article 4 so for the War so, so there is a huge amount of deliberation and intent to support without escalation.
Also even if Article 5 was invoked, it would be a question as to who would actual send troops vs "such action as [the member state] deems necessary" which is fairly broad.
I doubt article 5 would result immediately in boots on the ground, i can see strikes against naval targets in the black sea happening though or strikes against Russian defensive positions in Ukraine
These are huge 2 ton warheads on 6 ton missiles that are complete overkill to destroy civilian infrastructure.
It's likely that the Russian Navy or Air Force has run out of everything else they can reasonably throw at Ukraine.
It's time to flood the Black Sea with kamikaze and surveillance drone watercraft and send more Russian warships to join the Moscow on the sea bed.