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Imo reddit and twitter had both become too big and bloated, leading to a lit of the toxicity/recycled content. I think there's plenty of room for more platforms to arise and become successful, while the old ones stay "mainstream"
Basically reddit and Twitter will become the new Facebook over the next 5-10 years.
First lemmy post!
Speaking solely wrt Lemmy, I think what's going to happen is we won't get the "brand recognition" of the technology like what Reddit has had. But, we'll probably see instances get closer to that sort of broader familiarity. So someone might not exactly identify as a lemmy user, but maybe as a Beehaw user.
Anecdotally, I had to try a couple of times to fully "get in" to a Lemmy instance because I didn't know that the hell I was doing. I had tried using gerboa as my client but couldn't understand why I couldn't log in or register on an instance. Then I tried again using liftoff, and it kind of clicked more easily.
Maybe email felt like this in the early 00's? I knew what I could do with an email address (e.g. sign up for MSN and AIM), but I had no idea how to get an email address until I had my siblings walk me through it. I think if any instance can pull off a killer onboarding experience, they'll become the Bandaid, Jello, Kleenex, etc of Lemmy.
"hope"? Yes. "believe"? No. But I think it will pave the way for the next step.
It depends what you mean by "mainstream". If by that you imply that the Fediverse will become a true public forum, and a place to exchange ideas and form opinions, then yes, I would like for it to be a counterweight to legacy media and corporate content silos. However, if the fediverse becomes yet another astroturfed propaganda outlet, then no, I do not want it to become mainstream. Fortunately, the loose Fediverse network makes it hard to take over and control, provided that the ActivityPub protocol remains untainted by actions of bad actors.
How much horrific awkward teenage shit did Reddit have to go through to get where it is now? Bacon narwhals at midnight, rage comics, bullying an uninvolved brown kid into suicide after the Boston bombings, reluctantly removing CP adjacent subs only after being called out on cable news, the /r/fatpeoplehate nonsense, /r/antiwork mod humiliating xirself on Fox News, the woody harrelson rampart ama, fumbling the bag by firing Victoria, probably 20 more.
Let go of that thought. Reddit is (probably) here to stay. Lemmy will have less users, less communities, and tbh, probably less quality content. That's okay. Grow your seeds.
Tbh, Lemmy is big enough for me. I've always been more into the comments than the posts, I just like posts to set up context. Lemmy has plenty of comment discussion going around in the communities I like that I'm satisfied. More content would not be a bad thing of course, I'm just wary of the implications of the Fediverse being mainstream.
No. It's just way to complicated to become mainstream. Maybe some instance can become popular enough if they do their marketing right and create a really simple sign up process and just handwave away the entire federalisation that goes on in the background.
I hope not.
Places like Reddit or Twitter become progressively worse as they get more popular.
Besides, Mastodon is not a replacement of Twitter. It has the same UI and look&feel but it's very different. Twitter is basically a place where internet celebrities post and other people comment and share. Mastodon is more like regular chaps hanging out and exchanging opinions.
All this talk about “well, the UX”, “if the servers can”, “but the big companies”, bla, bla, bla. I’m here right now. There is nothing else as far as I’m concerned. Twitter and Reddit are dead to me and I absolutely love Mastodon and Lemmy. I quit Facebook many years ago and never found an alternative for that, outside of starting a shared photo group on iOS with my family.
You better start believing in fediverse alternatives…you’re in one.
After seeing several places get mainstream, the last of which being Reddit: I wouldn't want it to. That's when everything starts to suck. Stay niche. Stay cool.
There will always be niche instances. Federation just solves the content problem of niche communities. Ideally you find a instance with a niche community you like and you interact with them first but if you run out of things to look at you can just move on to the infinite content of the fediverse.
The average user does not care enough about the reasons that drive people off the mainstream social media - in short, they're idiots. So, no, these won't replace the shitty mainstream solutions, because most people just have no clue that they really should.
lmao just because you use alternative version doesnt makes you suddenly become smarter than them, the mentality of "Im using this product, Im superior than you" remind me of those apple sheep mentality
Belief is the acceptance of a claim without evidence. There is evidence that Lemmy and Mastodon can, with time, replace their centralized counterparts.
So do I believe it? No. I know it can happen though. Will it happen? Definite maybe. First, all the users that are bunched up on three big servers need to learn the painful lesson of how a federated architecture works. It’s in their best interests to find small instances of lemmy and have accounts there. Why, because all the huge instances of lemmy are having trouble staying functional. Lemmy.world has 87,000 users and an uptime of 97%. That means it experiences 11 days of downtime a year. Almost a day per month. Sh.itjust.works has around 10,000 users and a 99% uptime by comparison (still 3 to 4 days a year of downtime). Many smaller instances have 100% uptime. Look for yourself.
Another thing future users (not users yet) need to stop using as an argument (excuse) is, “but if I have an account on a site and it disappears, I lose my account.” Well, first, that’s true of the centralized service you’re using. And don’t talk to me about “too big to fail…” arguments. If there’s one thing Twitter, Reddit, and YoutTube have proven, it’s that you are irrelevant and disposable. They may not vanish, but the long lasting stupid they do for the sake of… I don’t even know what… has led to multiple migrations to distributed environments.
Are distributed environments perfect? No. They ARE improving though. And the fact is, in a distributed environment when one instance enacts something that you don’t feel is in your best interest… You go to another instance. No drama, no fanfare… just move.
By the time it’s gained adoption with a more flexible and strongly principled user base, I’m sure there will be a next thing to dethrone fediverse apps.
Software development principles and modern conventions are surprisingly cyclical, I’d argue that in 5-10 years’ time, if the fediverse picks up, some startup is going to say “are you tired of the same old fractured, fragmented ecosystem? Meet consolishare, a revolutionary idea of taking all the features you know and love from the fediverse and consolidating them into one sharing platform.”
Who knows though.
Tooling/apps will help dramatically. At the moment, it’s nowhere near as rich as the ecosystem that once was around platforms like Reddit.
I think we can... If we think about Disneyland.
Disneyland is a very complicated place with endless things to do and different directions to choose, but you walk in through one simple front door after buying one simple ticket, so it's not as scary to make first approach. Once you're in, you can craft your own adventure, but you have to get in to have the chance.
I know it's somewhat in conflict with a federated future, but for the "mass migration" portion at least, there are just a LOT of choices to make before you've experienced a single benefit out felt delighted by the familiar features of these communities. For that reason, many will be too intimidated to even start.
In the short term it will keep us small and keep certain low effort people out (maybe why energy is fairly ideal here, for now at least). In the long term though, may mean we never gain the mass to threaten the reddits of the world.
Mastodon: No. It's a very shitty alternative to Twitter where the quality depends wholly on the instance you join. The discoverability of federated content is so bad that if you go into that tab, you just see nothing but porn.
Lemmy: Possibly... It feels like a far less astroturfed alternative to Reddit.
It will definitely take a while to catch on to the public (if ever) considering the "complexities" with signing up for an account.
You can't just "Sign in with Google" or something like that, plus there isn't one centralized sign up button you have to pick whichever instance you prefer, which to most is to "complicated".
All I need are the quality people and post and reply from reddit to join lemmy
Amateur radio never became mainstream. It's doing fine.
Having more users does not (always) mean a good thing... so I hope not. It's good enough as is, thank you very much.
I don’t know a lot about lemmy.world, but it seems to be running on “a server”. The person that wrote this may have used it as a simpler way to mean “the overall infrastructure that runs lemmy”.
However, if it really is “a server”, there will eventually be a breaking point where continuing to scale gets a lot harder, more complex, and more expensive. A lot of people don’t really understand that a site like Reddit has a massive infrastructure as its foundation. That’s how it can handle millions of connections, billions of comments, and stay - more or less - available.
It’s expensive to run.
Lemmy can’t ever hope to replace Reddit without some kind of significant investment in infrastructure and possibly development. If the code isn’t written to support scaling out (as opposed to scaling up and just throwing more RAM, CPU, and storage at a single system), it can’t replace Reddit.
That’s not to say that I’m not loving Lemmy. I do. I have barely opened Reddit since Friday after apollo died. At some point, though, money will become a factor here as well.