So, how do we think this ends? : reddit

this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023

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So, how do we think this ends? (beehaw.org)

submitted 2 years ago by markipol@beehaw.org to c/reddit@lemmy.ml

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It can go one of a few ways.

Apart from the few subs that remain offline, it'll basically be back to normal. Those that do remain offline indefinitely just get forcibly reopened or recreated by admins, especially huge subreddits like /r/videos. Smaller ones just get redicted to /r/topicnew or some other creative name.
A lot of subreddits and more importantly moderators and users leave the site permanently. In order for this to happen however, there'd have to be a consensus alternative, which there isn't ATM. Otherwise, these communities are pretty much lost forever unless the mods put a message to go to X alternative service in the "subreddit is private" banner. Tbh, I don't think people are gonna stomach losing years of their lives in an instant so they'll just re create subreddits unless the mods provide an alternative.

No matter what though, they're not backing down on the effective removal of the API (still leaving the sneaky clause "you can pay us if you want but it'll be a king's ransom" for AI, even though they can just trawl the web manually lol). They'll probably announce some crappy customization features to hoodwink those who don't know what an API is and lie to them and say it's "API v2" or whatever.

I just honestly don't know how it's going to shake out and I'm scared im going to lose these communities. I don't give a single solitary fuck about Reddit the company anymore, and I never did really. I just hope all of the subreddits find a new home and don't just shrug their shoulders and say "welp, guess that's it guys".

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[–] jcb2016@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago

I mode 3 subs on reddit. my biggest is 75k but i only get like 4 post a day from my biggest sub. It's a big sub to me. we went dark on the 12th I checked reddit yesterday quickly and looked like in mod-mail I had a join request. I can only hope that Reddit takes notice of us and changes it's tune. Lemmy is awesome and I hope it gets better and surpasses Reddit

[–] MeltedLiquid@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I think you're going to know by one metric. Quality of content over the next ~3 - 6 months. Whether subs stay or go is one thing, that's been part of Reddit for the 12 years I used it. What would get folks to leave is when the communities they are interested in aren't supplying content.

So if you lose some lurkers, that's not gonna matter because they didn't post anyways. If you start losing power users, who regularly feed your community content, what's going to drive you to stick around? If you ask me, I think the fact we are even having this conversation means Reddit is losing in this equation.

[–] somniumx@feddit.de 1 points 2 years ago

I think Reddit has in some parts already lost this fight. For one of my hobbies, simracing, I used a couple of subreddits to stay informed. Honestly, looking back, it was a mile wide but an inch deep. Basically the same 4 topics on rotation. It became stale months ago. Now, I haven't found a good Lemmy community for this. But forums. And it is night and day how much more in depth the discussion is there. Whatever reddit does, I won't come back. The last week has encouraged me to look for alternative content and I found better stuff. Sure, this is most likely different for other interests. But I can't be the only one that found alternatives to Reddit that he prefers, even ignoring API or blackout etc.

[–] silversnow__@lemmy.ca 2 points 2 years ago (3 children)

you cant really return to normalcy from this, but i dont think most users care. whenever i get into a casual convo about the fediverse online, the general consensus from people is 'yeah reddit isnt going to die, i'll stay on reddit for my communities'. so if the majority think reddit isn't going to die and continue using the site, it probably wont die! it'll just go back to normal with a few million less users (which actually isnt that much for a big site) unless spez hilariously fucks up

really the fediverse is just a lot of people who like tech at the end of the day, not the average web user

[–] greatwhitebuffalo41@slrpnk.net 2 points 2 years ago

I agree, we're getting an insane amount of hate on our sub for remaining restricted indefinitely. The general users do not seem to care about 3rd party apps or that Reddit can just bend us over at any time.

[–] markipol@beehaw.org 1 points 2 years ago

Unfortunately yeah :/ a few people I've talked to support the blackout but have never heard of Lemmy or the fediverse and presumably have no alternative

[–] jamon@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

The concerning part will be what nonsense gets shoved into their apps in order to earn that discount. I'm guessing loads of ads and trackers under Reddits control.

[–] Megaf@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago

I can actually see plenty of people and communities permanently migrating over to Lemmy instances. Some are actually creating their very own federated Lemmy instances.

So now, for those who created their own instances, there will be no more censoring and imposing from a higher organization.

I don't see why to not use Fediverse, Mastodon apps are great already, and Lemmy apps are getting updated and improved as we speak.

Yes, the web front-end still needs work, and yes, Lemmy still lacks in some features, but that is being worked on as we speak, and I believe that some of the users migrating over, are devs, that will actually help to improve Lemmy, which is Open Source. So, if there's a feature you'd like Lemmy to have, just open a Pull Request!

[–] copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 2 years ago

Reddit will probably go through with its plan to charge third party apps large amounts of money for API access. (75%)

The Reddit blackout protest might cause changes to their upcoming API update. (42%)

Reddit will probably not IPO in 2023. (34%)

[–] Jezebelley@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

It's going to end with a relatively small reddit exodus with most returning to reddit in a few weeks. People are lazy, and will concede to the API changes just like they all did with Twitter. Remember when Musk took over and made all those dramatic changes heavily monetizing the platform? Everyone was crying how Twitter will die and that they were all quitting. Well guess what? Almost all of them went back to Twitter anyway and now use the official app just like Musk wanted. Reddit will be no different sadly.

[–] a_m@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

Reddit is different from Twitter. You stay in Twitter for famous accounts, not for the communities like Reddit. If enough of people (especially mods and power users) actually move to another place, Reddit will slowly die. The community-based approach of the fediverses I think works well with immigrants Redditors

[–] mibzman@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

I've been off Twitter and on mastodon for a long time now so take this with a grain of salt.

November changed mastodon forever. It's 5-10x more active with a much broader userbase. Sure it's gotten quieter than it was in December, but it went from 'weird nerd twitter' to 'small social media'.

The events of this month have brought lemmy from 'alpha demo of activitypub groups' to 'weird nerd reddit'

[–] waspentalive@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Personally, I will only be going back to Reddit if I need help with some specific thing and I can't find it in Lemmy anywhere. And only for that thread.

[–] DJDSXSHOWFX@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 years ago

I think it's a matter of communities. People would stay on Reddit because of top communities and top quality content made on those communities. As long we have some form of aggregations of users making great content here on Lemmy as well, we're good imho.

[–] Denaton@programming.dev 1 points 2 years ago

I don't think that Reddit is going down, but i have seen users that post regularly on Reddit closing down their accounts and joining Lemmy, this will snowball into more joining Lemmy because the quality of post will eventually go down on Reddit and go up on Lemmy, this is just speculations and have a really lose base.

[–] hackitfast@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Here's my take, I grabbed it from my reddit comment, it's slightly out of context so excuse that:

I do think reddit will continue to function, but its communities and services will undoubtedly begin to change following July 1st as users begin to shift to different platforms like Lemmy, Kbin, and Squabbles.

And don't think that as reddit aims for quarterly growth, they won't try to pull more shit on their users. It's only a matter of time before reddit is an amalgamation of Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.

RPAN probably failed because either nobody wanted to use their first party app, or were using old.reddit.com. RPAN was their first attempt at reddit trying to "catch the waves" of services like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, and Instagram Reels. The most recent r/place was the second attempt at getting people to use their mobile app.

Expect reddit to keep adding "trend catching" features over the next year or so while you're confined to reddit.com without RES, and reddits mobile app. Unfortunately, reddit will eventually it will be a shell of what reddit once was, and the users that choose to stay will be the ones willing to put up with their shit.

So yes, of course the point is to make money! Though it will almost always be poorly reflected on its users, and they'll go any length to make sure they're doing just enough to keep you here but not enough for you to want to leave. Users will make their decision to stay or leave over the coming months as you see this "enshiftification".

Here's a good article on this, it's very interesting:

https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-platforms-cory-doctorow/

[–] BendyLemmy@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

Meanwhile, as the subs are down there are people attempting to replicate them here.

So if you like Dadjokes, hop over to DadJokes

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Why did anybody expect reddit to back down on this. Unless reddit loses a significant portion of its user base then they have no reason to care. Currently, there really isn't any viable alternative infrastructure that could absorb millions of new users. People are going to make a fuss for a bit, but if they enjoyed using reddit before then they'll come back to using it sooner or later.

Frankly, I don't know why people keep fixating on this. I've been using Lemmy for over three years. I use it because I enjoy the community here, and I don't really think about what reddit is or isn't doing.

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[–] demian@lemmy.ml 1 points 2 years ago

The communities you love are made of people, and people will go to someplace better. When googleplus ended, it was a mess in the initial migration. But soon people agreed to stick to better places, and the communities survived. Reddit is just a venue that used to be nice to hang out with friends and now is turning into a shopping center. It's annoying to change venues, but real friends will stick togheter.

[–] Fixtor@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago (3 children)

We already tried to move to Voat in 2015 and it... didn't turn out very well...

I think if the Apollo dev actually releases an Apollo-based app for Lemmy then we might get a chance.

[–] grundelgrump@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

Voat was always going to be a cesspool because of the actual reason they were migrating in the first place. A bunch of hate subs got banned and the kind of people who would be upset enough to boycott that are shit heads so it was inevitable.

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