With people learning about Fediverse, I'm guessing Instagram. Why? Because IG has become overwhelmed with influencers and TikTok-like junk. The initial wave of people into Pixelfed will be techies that want a break from that scene. Their friends will hear about it. The friends that just want to have an IG-like experience to share their pictures with friends while avoiding all the rest of the noise will slowly transfer over. Once they hit the critical mass, the switch will happen. This will take at least another year or two.
this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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Discord is not a bad bet, but I think they still have like 2-4years in them.
but that i think would rather make matrix servers go boom ... literally i am afraid when i look at the various bugs and performance bottlenecks of synapse, which at least right now is the most popular server
Absolutely, I tried switching to it using bridges for all my messaging accounts and the performance was abhorrent, mind you just me, a single user on a self hosted instance.
Discord might be it but not for a while. Right now they're one of the places people are flocking thanks to their forum channels.
Stackoverflow (not quite a huge tech company) is edging.
It's hard to predict - because despite the bad decisions from platforms like Facebook, Twitch, and Reddit, they are still always going to be immensely more popular than Fediverse / FOSS equivalents due to the network effect.
Despite all the bad moves from YouTube, Twitch, and Reddit, the vast majority of people aren't interested in another platform, they just want the current platform to not be rubbish, so they don't lose their current communities and contacts.
While I'd like for all the Fediverse platforms to become relatively "mainstream" that people will sign up for them, I don't think it's ever going to happen any time soon, but I'd love to be proven wrong.
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