this post was submitted on 26 Apr 2023
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I think BlueSky is the bigger threat, to be honest.
If the fediverse population 'clumps' into mastodon.social and mastodon.social sells out, people will still be on the protocol so they'll be able to transfer out.
But if BlueSky succeeds at replacing twitter and filling up the niche, less dedicated fediverse users will switch to the livelier site. That will be a far more devastating blow to the fediverse.
That said, I think it'll survive either or both. ActivityPub taking over twitter instead of BlueSky would be good for the open, anti-monopoly internet cause, but I think it'll continue regardless. The core communities are established.
@Munrock @Berserkware it’s all about the $Money - a decentralized network (even a BlueSky) is going to have to work like Uber and find hundreds or thousands of people willing to be exploited so the owners can make money - users may think of excitement - owners think only of making money.