this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2023
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GenZedong
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It's possible, but they are gonna need a scapegoat in the end.
Or they will accept the defeat, take Zelensky as refugee and keep fear mongering against Russia, presenting it as maniac dictatorship being prime aggressor, to strengthen NATO by making more countries join out of fear from Russia.
Comrade, tell us the parallels you are drawing when you say they gonna need a scapegoat.
I expect that accepting defeat will be career ending for a lot of the politicians in the west. Once it becomes impossible to pretend that the war is anything but a debacle, then recriminations are going to start flying. Meanwhile, it's going to be hard to get any NATO unity when the economic situation continues to unravel. People in Europe are starting to get angry, and when they're told that there's gonna have to be even more austerity that could be the breaking point. Notice how parties that want to start dialog with Russia are starting to get popular all of a sudden. Unfortunately, pretty much all of them are right wingers because the left in the west ended up aligning with the imperialists.
May be they knew the end result but still started the war as a an extra gig for US imperialists to make some quick bucks, and then reset everything to pre war.
I get the impression that they are completely detached from reality, and they expected Russia to just collapse within a few weeks of the war starting. Then they just kept hoping that Russia would run out of weapons, or that Russian army would crack, or that they could choke Russia economically somehow. The longer this went on the more they got trapped in their own lies, and now they've painted themselves into a corner and have no idea what to do about it.
What do you think about Russia Europe relations after war? Is Russia going to deliberately keep the trade relations low to let US suck Europe dry or they gonna forget their hostility and start exporting again?
I expect Russia will be open to dialog, but they will demand a new security architecture in Europe outside of NATO. It's also possible that Russia will try to pull countries like Hungary and Serbia into its sphere if economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate.
It's really hard to say right now. Russia seems to be taking a pragmatic stance on that. We can see how they've been dealing with Turkey for example, where they continue cooperation even as Turkey keeps playing games. What I expect Russia to try to do is to break up NATO and EU by peeling countries off. Hungary is the obvious choice, and they might be able to get them to flip. France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Germany might decide that they've had enough as well. Maybe one option could be that China steps in to provide some security guarantees, and a new security framework outside of NATO is created. Ultimately, Russia's concern is with US and they don't really see individual European countries as any real threat.